NFL predictions: What's on the line in Cowboys vs. Eagles in Week 1?
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, one team on Thursday night has more to gain than any other team in Week 1
On Labor Day, first-year Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer gathered his players. With just three days remaining until his team's season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, the coach, as he recalled, gave a fiery and excited speech about playing the reigning Super Bowl champions in primetime on Thursday in the NFL Kickoff Game.
He immediately regretted it.
"I went to bed that night," Schottenheimer recalled Tuesday. "I was like, 'What are you doing? You know better than that.' Every game we play is just another championship opportunity. It's just another championship opportunity. We get a chance to go out there against the Eagles. You don't get extra credit for beating the Eagles in Philly on primetime than you do for beating the Giants at noon in AT&T Stadium."
While what Schottenheimer said is technically true, the numbers say that no NFL team can benefit more from a victory in Week 1 than Dallas.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024, has already crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. According to the model, the Cowboys, who went 7-10 a year ago and missed the playoffs, enter the season with a 17.9% chance of making the playoffs. However if Dallas, which is a 8.5-point underdog against Philadelphia, can pull off an upset against the champs, the Cowboys' chances of making the postseason would jump to 28.5%. That's the biggest leap any team in the league could make, based on the model's projections.
| CHANCES OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS | |||
| TEAM | CURRENT | AFTER WIN | DIFFERENCE |
| Dallas Cowboys | 17.9% | 28.5% | 10.6% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 17.0% | 27.1% | 10.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 62.0% | 72.1% | 10.1% |
| New York Jets | 18.9% | 28.5% | 9.6% |
| Miami Dolphins | 36.4% | 45.7% | 9.3% |
By contrast, the model does not think a win by the Eagles would affect their playoff chances significantly. Philadelphia already has a 91.0% chance to reach the postseason, and that number would move to 91.9% with a victory over Dallas. The 0.9% differential is tied for the lowest of any team in Week 1.
In short, the Cowboys have significantly more to gain on Thursday night than the Eagles do.
Of course Dallas has a tall task against the defending champs. Philadelphia has won the last 14 games started and finished by quarterback Jalen Hurts, including the playoffs. Last season, the Eagles blew out the Cowboys twice, 34-6 and 41-7.
Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley is coming off a season in which he led the league in rushing (2,005 yards) while running for 13 touchdowns. On Thursday, he will face a Dallas defense that allowed 137.1 rushing yards per game last season, the fourth most in the NFL.
But Schottenheimer doesn't want his players to put more emphasis on this game than any other.
"What I don't these guys to do, and I think the coaches are a big part of this, is go in there and try so hard," he said. "'We're playing the Eagles. I'm going to do so hard.' They're going to make mistakes if they do that. Play free. It's football. Fly around. Love be around your brothers. Just run to the football. Celebrate. Have fun."
