NFL preseason betting: Why QB depth charts matter

With starting quarterbacks getting limited playing time, the strength of a team’s backups at the position is important information to consider when betting on NFL preseason games.

For many NFL fans, the preseason is a time to get excited about their favorite team, watch some mediocre football, and see how new free agents and draft picks – if they play – perform. It’s always a time that hype surrounding a player – be it positive or negative – can get a little out of hand, but that’s part of the fun of August football.

Preseason games can provide interesting opportunities for football betting fans. While it seems counterintuitive for the average fan, the more uncertainty there is in a market, the greater the potential opportunity to exploit it. In the preseason, it’s all about gleaning information from coaches during press conferences and looking back at how they treat preseason historically. Some coaches want to win every game; others will treat it as an exhibition and work on specific plays.

The Baltimore Ravens, for example, won 24 straight preseason games, before losing their last two in the 2023 preseason. The Ravens were 0-3 against the spread (ATS) last season, disappointing bettors who had backed them all those previous years.

Assuming that no major injuries occur, preseason results usually have little impact on a team’s record for the coming season. Remember all those Indianapolis Colts teams led by Peyton Manning that were terrible in the preseason and then won 11-14 games every season?

That’s why in the preseason, knowing the depth at teams’ disposal is paramount to wagering – especially at the quarterback position. In the regular season, it’s obviously most important to have the best starting quarterback; in the preseason, the starter is one of the least important QBs in the rotation, since the backups will get far more playing time.

Here are a few of the best active preseason coaches to bet on, with their ATS record:

• John Harbaugh (Ravens): 40-20
• Mike Tomlin (Steelers): 36-29-1
• Sean McDermott (Bills) 15-8
• Jim Harbaugh (Chargers): 10-6
• Robert Salah (NY Jets): 6-3
• Matt Eberflus (Bears): 4-1

And here are a few coaches whose teams have struggled ATS in the preseason:

• Brian Daboll (NY Giants): 0-6
• Kevin O’Connell (Vikings): 1-5
• Nick Sirianni (Eagles): 2-5-1
• Dan Quinn (Commanders): 6-14-1

Be sure to monitor line movement as well, as preseason games will have odds shift far more rapidly than regular-season matchups due to the announcement of which quarterbacks will play and how long starters at other positions will be in.

For example, Las Vegas Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce told reporters this week that both QBs vying for the starting role – Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew – will play “a legit quarter” in Saturday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings. The game opened with the Raiders as 1.5-point underdogs, and has moved all the way to Raiders -4 at some books from this news and wagers on Las Vegas. On the other side, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell tends to rest his starters in the preseason and Jaren Hall is likely to get some playing time – which is probably not going to help Minnesota wagers.

If a team’s starters can score a few touchdowns early in the game, it can be much more difficult for an opposing team’s backups to match those scores in the second half.

That is an example of the depth of research required in the preseason, and why bettors should likely steer clear unless they are prepared to truly understand the game they’re betting on.

You can find depth charts for each individual NFL team here, by clicking on a team’s roster and then selecting the depth chart option.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky, Shane Buechele

Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike White, Skylar Thompson

New England Patriots: Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Joe Milton, Bailey Zappe

New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Andrew Peasley, Adrian Martinez

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson, Josh Johnson, Devin Leary, Emory Jones

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, Jake Browning, Logan Woodside, Rocky Lombardi

Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Tyler Huntley

Pittsburgh Steelers: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Kyle Allen, John Rhys Plumlee

AFC South

Houston Texans: CJ Stroud, Davis Mills, Case Keenum, Tim Boyle

Indianapolis Colts:  Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger, Kedon Slovis 

Jacksonville Jaguars:  Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, CJ Beathard

Tennessee Titans: Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, Malik Willis

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Chris Oladokun, Ian Book

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, Easton Stick, Max Duggan, Casey Bauman

Las Vegas Raiders: Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, Anthony Brown, Carter Bradley

Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Trey Lance

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts, Kenny Pickett, Tanner McKee, Will Grier

New York Giants: Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito

Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota, Sam Hartman, Jeff Driskel

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford, Michael Pratt

Minnesota Vikings: Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall

Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien, Austin Reed

Detroit Lions: Jared Goff, Hendon Hooker, Nate Sudfeld

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, John Wolford, Zack Annexstad

Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins, Michael Penix Jr., Taylor Heinicke, Nathan Rourke

New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr, Jake Haener, Spencer Rattler

Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, Andy Dalton, Jack Plummer

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, Stetson Bennett, Dresser Winn

Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, Desmond Ridder, Clayton Tune

San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy, Joshua Dobbs, Brandon Allen, Tanner Mordecai

Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith, Sam Howell, PJ Walker