NFL Week 10 picks and predictions: Which three teams should be on upset alert?

Steelers have a solid shot to upset Washington, while the Bucs and Colts are live home underdogs

Not so long ago NFL underdog bettors were sitting on a bankroll thick enough to rupture a spinal disc.

From Weeks 2-4 of this season, underdogs scored outright upsets in 23 of 47 games featuring a betting line — a nearly 50% hit rate. These underdogs also combined to go 28-17-2 against the point spread. Even more remarkable, underdogs of five points or more during this three-week stretch went 10-8 overall and 14-3-1 ATS.

Fast-forward five weeks, and the once-robust bankroll that underdog bettors were enjoying has vanished. Since Week 5, NFL betting favorites are 58-16 on the field and 46-27-1 ATS.

Of course, the law of averages suggests that this lopsided trend is overdue for a correction. With that in mind, here are three bold NFL underdog money line predictions for Week 10 (listed in order of confidence).

NFL underdog best bet: Steelers (+138, FanDuel) at Commanders

Having been kicked in the gut for five solid weeks, most money line underdog bettors have understandably gotten apprehensive. 

In fact, the Week 10 schedule features 14 games, but only two teams as of midweek were attracting more than 33% of the money line bets at DraftKings. No surprise, both squads — the Jets (-105 at Arizona) and Steelers (+124 at Washington) — are among the week’s three shortest underdogs. 

Exactly half of the Jets-Cardinals betting action at DraftKings is on New York, while 46% of the tickets on Pittsburgh-Washington is on the visitors.

Of the two, the Steelers not only offer more wagering value, they’re the better play. In fact, Pittsburgh is the best underdog money line bet at any sportsbook in Week 10.

That might raise some eyebrows, considering how surprisingly well Washington has played so far. Since a 17-point season-opening loss at Tampa Bay, the Commanders have won seven of eight (including three in a row).

During this stretch, Washington has sprung two outright upsets, gone 7-0-1 ATS overall and won and covered all five games as a favorite.

Also, behind first-year quarterback Jayden Daniels — the overwhelming NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite — the Commanders rank third in the league in both scoring (29.2 points per game) and total offense (392 yards per game).

However, that offense has yet to face a defense as fierce as the one invading the nation’s capital Sunday. 

Pittsburgh gives up just 14.9 points per contest; only the Chargers (12.6 ppg) have been stingier. The Steelers also rank ninth in total defense (310.2 yards per game allowed) and fourth in rushing defense (90.5 ypg).

To this point, Washington has played just one team that ranks in the top half of the league both in yards allowed and the top 14 in points allowed. That team is Chicago, which is fifth in scoring defense and 12th in total defense.

While the Commanders racked up 481 yards against the Bears in Week 8, Washington scored a season-low 18 points — the last six of which came on a miraculous game-ending Hail Mary that erased Chicago’s seemingly safe 15-12 lead.

Two additional factors work in the Steelers’ favor. First, they had last week off, which matters not just because of the midseason respite but because Pittsburgh is 13-4 under coach Mike Tomlin following a bye week. That includes an ongoing seven-game winning streak.

Also, the Steelers (6-2) are coming off three straight blowout wins over the Raiders (32-13), Jets (37-15) and Giants (26-18). The key: Pittsburgh’s offense put up more points (95) than in its first six games combined (92).

Prediction: Steelers 23, Commanders 17

NFL underdog best bet: Buccaneers (+200, BetMGM) vs. 49ers

Tampa Bay had the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs on the ropes Monday night in Kansas City.

Despite playing a second straight game without explosive wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, the Buccaneers took a 17-10 lead into the fourth quarter. And although Tampa Bay gave up the next two touchdowns, it also scored one with 27 seconds remaining to force overtime.

The champs being the champs, Kansas City pulled out a 30-24 victory to remain the NFL’s lone undefeated team and set a franchise record with 14 consecutive wins (playoffs included) dating to last season.

Regardless of that outcome, Tampa Bay gave the Chiefs a much tougher battle on the road than the 49ers did when it hosted Kansas City three weeks ago (28-18 loss as a 2.5-point favorite).

That’s one reason to like the Bucs to upset the 49ers as a consensus 5-point underdog in Week 10. It is not, however, the only reason to take BetMGM’s market-best +200 money line odds.

First off, San Francisco continues to be as banged up as any team in the NFL. 

The defending NFC champs haven’t had star running back Christian McCaffrey all season. And although the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year has been activated from injured reserve and could make his return this week, he may show signs of rust.

Additionally, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Chiefs, and two of his fellow wideouts — Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings — were questionable with injuries early this week.

If that’s not enough, Jordan Mason — McCaffrey’s backup who has been terrific all year — re-injured his shoulder in a Week 8 win against the Cowboys. He, too, started the week as questionable for Sunday’s game.

Then there’s the fact that San Francisco has been favored in all eight of its games this season, yet has only won half of them. That includes a pair of road losses to the Vikings (23-17 as a 4-point favorite) and Rams (27-24 as a 6-point chalk).

On top of that, the Niners fell 24-23 to visiting Arizona, which was a 7-point underdog.

Sure, San Francisco preceded its Week 9 bye with a 30-24 home win over Dallas. It still hasn’t won back-to-back games this season.

Admittedly, Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly been flawless, having dropped three in a row following a 4-2 start. But that start included a 20-16 win at Detroit (still the Lions’ only loss) and a 33-16 trouncing of Philadelphia (which is 6-2).

The Bucs had Godwin and Evans in those two wins, and their absence against San Francisco isn’t ideal. However, neither played Monday night in Kansas City, and Baker Mayfield and Co. still nearly pulled off the biggest upset of the season.

Prediction: Buccaneers 28, 49ers 27

NFL underdog best bet: Colts (+175, Caesars) vs. Bills

Offense, defense, special teams, quarterback play, sacks, turnover margin, current momentum — you name the area, Buffalo has the edge over Indianapolis nearly across the board.

That’s why the Bills are a consensus 4-point road favorite over the Colts at most NFL sportsbooks (including Caesars Sportsbook, which offers the best money line price).

In fact, one could easily argue that Buffalo should be laying closer to a touchdown in this Week 10 matchup. So why isn’t that the case?

For starters, this is a bit of a trap game for a squad that currently has the fourth-shortest Super Bowl odds. 

Last week, the Bills needed almost all of 60 minutes — as well as a 61-yard, game-winning field goal — to escape 30-27 against a Miami team that had lost five of its previous six games. (That includes a 31-10 home loss to Buffalo in Week 2.)

Now the Bills head to Indianapolis to play their fifth road game in seven weeks, with a monster revenge game on deck against the Chiefs. Then comes a bye week, followed by a visit from the 49ers in Week 13.

At the same time, Indianapolis is coming off its most lopsided loss of the season. In fact, Sunday night’s 21-13 defeat at Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog was the Colts’ most lopsided result (win or lose) since Week 15 of last season.

Indy’s previous 10 games had been decided by six points or fewer, including six decided by a field goal or less.

So you’ve got a road-weary favorite in a classic flat spot against a ticked-off home underdog that is comfortable playing in close games and has won three straight home games since opening the year with a 29-27 home loss to Houston.

Again: Buffalo is the superior side; there’s no questioning that. But as was often the case from Weeks 2-4 this season, the superior side doesn’t always win in the NFL.

Prediction: Colts 22, Bills 20