After Unders (12-4) dominated Week 1 and Overs (10-6) prevailed in Week 2, it was an even 8-8 split for Overs and Unders in Week 3. Week 4 is notable on the NFL schedule, as we have our first Sunday morning contest (Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings in Dublin) and this is the last week before byes start kicking in.
So with 16 totals on the board for Week 4, let's check out two totals that I think have good value.
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Vikings at Steelers: Over 40.5 -115 (FanDuel)
This is the second-lowest total on the board for Week 4 (only Titans-Texans at 38.5 is lower), and I understand it can be scary to back the Over for a game taking place in Europe. But I just don't think that this version of the Steelers' defense deserves to have a total as low as 40.5 -- even against Carson Wentz.
The Steelers gave up 32 points to the Jets and 31 points to the Seahawks over the first two weeks. Pittsburgh surrendered its fewest points of the season to the Patriots last weekend with 14, but the Steelers were very fortunate with turnovers. They forced two turnovers when the Patriots were inside Pittsburgh's 2-yard line and two other fumbles when the Patriots were in Pittsburgh territory.
The Steelers' defense is dealing with a lot of injuries right now, and it's been apparent that teams can move the ball with relative ease against them. Kevin O'Connell is one of the sharpest offensive minds in the league, and I certainly think the Vikings can hold up their end of the bargain with surpassing this low total. Going up against a Brian Flores defense is tough, but the Bears dropped 24 points against the Vikings and the Falcons had 22 -- the same Atlanta team that was shut out 30-0 by the woeful Panthers.
Bengals at Broncos: Under 43.5 -105 (DraftKings)
The Bengals' run blocking is a disaster, as they have 147 yards on 61 carries (2.5 yards per carry) as a team. That is causing a lot of longer-yardage scenarios on second and third down, and it's a lot more difficult to overcome them with Jake Browning under center compared to Joe Burrow. The Broncos have one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL and have Patrick Surtain II to shut down one of Cincinnati's dynamic wideouts (Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins). With how bad Cincinnati's offensive line is, I think this will be a team that struggles to score in many games this season.
Cincinnati lost 48-10 to the Vikings in Week 3, but two of those Minnesota touchdowns were defensive. Bo Nix has struggled mightily in Year 2, and I'm not sure I trust the Denver offense. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a defensive touchdown, but these are two offenses that are screaming Under right now.
