Josh Allen in a tier of his own? Week 5 NFL quarterback projections and tiers

26 quarterbacks will be in action on Sunday and Monday in NFL Week 5, and we rank them based on how Las Vegas projects their production

Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season kicked off with a thrilling Thursday night game. We preview the remaining 26 QBs playing this week through sportsbook projections.

NFL bettors were spoiled in the first four weeks of the 2024 season, with all 32 teams in action each week to provide a full smorgasbord of football to the masses. In Week 5, that is no longer the case, with four teams on bye and a slimmed-down slate as a result. Still, there are top-flight matchups all over the league and, as always, quarterbacks are at the forefront of the widespread conversation. 

We will rank the 26 quarterbacks in action on Sunday and Monday through the lens of the prop betting market and statistical projections from major NFL sportsbooks. This projection also uses standard fantasy scoring for the sake of clarity with four points per passing touchdown, one point per 25 passing yards, one point per 10 rushing yards, and six points per rushing touchdown. Let’s take a look at the quarterback hierarchy ahead of Week 5 action.

Tier 1: The dual package

1 – Josh Allen

Projections: 231.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 30.5 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 22.3 fantasy points

Josh Allen has been one of the best players in the NFL this season, and he is a leading candidate for NFL MVP. He is always a dual-threat option, but Allen separates from the field this week by virtue of being the only quarterback projected to score a rushing touchdown. 

Tier 2: The top passers and top rushers

2 – Brock Purdy

Projections: 257.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 12.5 rush yards, 19.6 fantasy points

Brock Purdy has been a model of consistency as a passer this season, throwing for at least 231 yards in each game. He is also part of a select group projected for multiple touchdown passes, and Purdy faces a potentially vulnerable Arizona defense.

3 – C.J. Stroud

Projections: 258.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 19.3 fantasy points

The Texans are at home in a controlled environment, and CJ Stroud is also facing a Buffalo team that allows for a high-scoring matchup. That could lead to a great deal of passing volume, and Stroud has the second-highest projection of passing yards this week. 

4 – Geno Smith

Projections: 253.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 10.5 rush yards, 19.2 fantasy points

After four weeks, Geno Smith led the NFL with 1,182 passing yards. That has been surpassed by Kirk Cousins after a monster Thursday performance, but Smith leads a high-flying Seahawks offense in an advantageous matchup against the New York Giants. 

5 – Joe Burrow

Projections: 254.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 19.1 fantasy points

Joe Burrow does have a touch matchup to navigate against the Baltimore Ravens, but he is completing more than 70 percent of his passes in 2024. Burrow also has high-end pass-catchers and an offense that leans heavily on his arm. 

6 – Jordan Love

Projections: 259.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 6.5 rush yards, 19.0 fantasy points

No player is projected for more passing yards than Jordan Love this week. His rushing projection is more modest in the wake of his knee injury, but Love has weapons and a fantastic scheme to lean on against the Los Angeles Rams.

7 – Lamar Jackson

Projections: 208.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 56.5 rush yards, 18.0 fantasy points

As often, Lamar Jackson enters the week with the highest rushing projection among quarterbacks. That leads to a lofty floor, and Jackson is also averaging 7.9 yards per attempt this season. Baltimore is also facing a vulnerable Cincinnati Bengals defense, albeit on the road in a divisional setting.

8 – Jayden Daniels

Projections: 204.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 49.5 rush yards, 17.1 fantasy points

Through four weeks, Daniels is the leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the Washington quarterback is completing more than 80 percent of his passes. That provides dual-threat appeal, but Daniels is also buoyed by the second-highest projection of rushing yards among signal-callers.

9 – Justin Fields

Projections: 186.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 47.5 rush yards, 16.2 fantasy points

Passing volume is not on Fields’ side with a team built around defense and ball control. With that said, he will take on a struggling Dallas Cowboys defense, and Fields is also one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL. 

Tier 3: Rock solid

10 – Kyler Murray

Projections: 223.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 29.5 rush yards, 15.9 fantasy points

Murray is coming off his worst game of the 2024 season, as he struggled in a blowout loss in Week 4. That may account for a dip in his projections, but the Arizona quarterback marries high-level rushing capability with a big arm and enough firepower at the skill positions. 

11 – Patrick Mahomes

Projections: 231.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 17.5 rush yards, 15.0 fantasy points

The Chiefs are 4-0, but Mahomes’ production has not been what it usually is. Kansas City also took a hit with the injury to Rashee Rice, and it seems clear that the Chiefs are far more interested in grinding out wins than with Mahomes putting up numbers.

Tier 4: Enough rushing to count (and Dak Prescott)

12 – Trevor Lawrence

Projections: 237.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 13.5 rush yards, 14.9 fantasy points

Week 5 is a big one for Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The team is 0-4 and, while Lawrence is projected for well over 230 passing yards, he has not reached that total in any game this season. 

13 – Deshaun Watson

Projections: 211.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 23.5 rush yards, 14.8 fantasy points

Deshaun Watson is 24th in the NFL in passing yards with only four passing touchdowns in four games. These projections are more encouraging than those baseline numbers, but some of that stems from a favorable matchup against Washington’s shaky defense.

14 – Daniel Jones

Projections: 182.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 31.5 rush yards, 14.5 fantasy points

The Giants have ramped up their passing volume in recent days, including 40 attempts for 281 yards for Jones in Week 4. However, the loss of Malik Nabors for this game could put a cap on New York’s passing attack, and Jones ranks this highly because of his legs.

15 – Dak Prescott

Projections: 240.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 7.5 rush yards, 14.5 fantasy points

In a typical week, Prescott may rank higher. After all, he is in the top six of the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns this season. This is a tough matchup, though, as the Cowboys must face the Steelers on the road, and Prescott does not have the rushing projection that others do in this tier. 

16 – Caleb Williams

Projections: 213.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 16.5 rush yards, 14.2 fantasy points

The No. 1 overall pick set a new career high in completion rate (73.9 percent) in Week 4, but he attempted only 23 passes in a win over the Los Angeles Rams. If Williams can pair that efficiency with an uptick in volume against Carolina, excitement could follow. 

17 – Sam Darnold

Projections: 218.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 11.5 rush yards, 13.9 fantasy points

Projections at top U.S. sportsbooks do not seem to believe the hype on Darnold, at least from a touchdown standpoint. He leads the NFL with 11 passing touchdowns in four games, but Darnold is projected for only one score in Week 5. 

18 – Tyler Huntley

Projections: 160.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 33.5 rush yards, 13.8 fantasy points

Huntley’s debut in Miami did not go according to plan. He failed to reach 100 passing yards in a dismal loss to Tennessee, and his passing projections are quite modest. However, Huntley did rush for 40 yards in Week 4, and his work in the running game pushes Huntley up a tier.

19 – Bo Nix

Projections: 189.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 21.5 rush yards, 13.7 fantasy points

Nix was utterly ineffective as a passer in Week 4, throwing for only 60 yards and entering halftime with negative yardage through the air. If anything, this otherwise modest projection would represent a sizable step forward from a week ago.

Tier 5: The bsement

20 – Matthew Stafford

Projections: 235.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 13.5 fantasy points

Even without his top two wide receivers, Stafford remains a prolific passer. He has at least 216 passing yards in each of four games this season, and the Rams will need to keep throwing. On the other hand, he doesn’t bring anything with his legs, and Stafford faces a playoff-level team this week. 

21 – Aaron Rodgers

Projections: 225.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 4.5 rush yards, 13.5 fantasy points

Rodgers is a prominent name, but that hasn’t matched his production in 2024. He is playing at a relatively high level, but the volume isn’t there for a team still built around its defense. Now, he will play overseas against the Vikings, and expectations are minimal in the prop market.

22 – Andy Dalton

Projections: 215.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 4.5 rush yards, 13.1 fantasy points

Dalton’s Week 3 explosion was not duplicated in Week 4, but he was moderately effective with 220 yards and two touchdowns through the air. This is a difficult matchup on the road in Chicago, but Carolina’s defense looks far different with the veteran under center. 

23 – Derek Carr

Projections: 210.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 2.5 rush yards, 12.7 fantasy points

The Saints came out of the gate flying with two impressive efforts to begin the season, but Carr has cooled and so has New Orleans on the whole. To make matters worse, the Saints must face the Chiefs on the road in what projects to be a raucous atmosphere. 

24 – Gardner Minshew

Projections: 189.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 6.5 rush yards, 12.2 fantasy points

The Las Vegas Raiders have shifted their offense more toward the running game in the last two weeks, which paints a dire picture for Minshew. He is also facing a tough matchup against Denver’s resurgent defense.

25 – Jacoby Brissett

Projections: 161.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 11.4 fantasy points

In four games, Brissett has not exceeded 168 passing yards. He does have a relatively friendly matchup at home against Miami, but the Patriots’ passing game leaves plenty to be desired.

Note: Due to injury uncertainty, no QB projections were available for the Indianapolis Colts at time of publication