Content on this page may include affiliate links. If you click and sign up/place a wager, we may receive compensation at no cost to you.
No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU: Betting preview, stats and best bets
SEC blue bloods meet when the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Death Valley to face the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge on Saturday night
| WHO | No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU |
| WHEN | Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 7:30pm ET |
| WHERE | Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, Louisiana |
| HOW | ABC |
College Football Playoff hopes may well be on the line Saturday Night in the Bayou, as No. 11 Alabama is between -2.5 and -3 at sportsbook apps for this rivalry game against No. 15 LSU, a home underdog for this one. The game is expected to be relatively high scoring with a total set at 58.5. Both teams may be 6-2, but the Crimson Tide already have two SEC losses compared to just one for Tigers. Alabama cannot afford another defeat if it also wants an outside shot at an SEC Championship Game appearance.
Both teams come off a bye week with extra time to prepare and get injured players healthy.
Alabama has traded wins and losses for the past five weeks now, a stretch that started with an incredibly promising 41-34 win over Georgia. However, that was followed by a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt — a game which the Tide entered as 22.5-point favorites. Alabama then tallied a 27-25 home win vs. South Carolina, a 24-17 road loss to Tennessee, and a 34-0 home blowout over Missouri.
LSU had largely righted the ship after a season-opening loss to USC in Las Vegas, rattling off six consecutive wins, which included an impressive 29-26 win against Ole Miss. The Tigers suffered a setback last week though, falling at Texas A&M 28-23.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, Alabama is favored by a little less than a field goal with -142 odds to win the game on the money line, an implied win probability of 59%.
In the first year of the 12-team playoff, the College Football Playoff released its first rankings of the season this week. Alabama would be projected into the field at No. 11, while LSU has work to do at No. 15. It’s important to remember only conference champions can earn a top-four seed and first-round bye.
At BetMGM, Alabama is tied for the sixth choice in National Championship betting at +1800, while LSU is at +4000.
Key injuries to monitor
LSU lost offensive guard Garrett Dellinger to an ankle injury in the Tigers’ last game at Texas A&M. He had tightrope surgery, and head coach Brian Kelly projected a Week 12 return at Florida. Redshirt freshman Paul Mubenga was the backup against the Aggies.
Tigers wide receiver CJ Daniels could not get through the second half against Texas A&M with a lower-leg injury; however, the bye week came at a good time. Kelly said he’s doing much better heading into this game.
Alabama has no injuries to starters to monitor heading into the game.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama spread | -2.5 (-120) | -2.5 (-115) | -3 (-105) |
| LSU spread | +2.5 (-102) | +2.5 (-105) | +3 (-115) |
| Alabama money line | -142 | -142 | -145 |
| LSU money line | +118 | +120 | +122 |
| Over | Over 58.5 (-106) | Over 58 (-110) | Over 58.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 58.5 (-114) | Under 58 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110) |
Why bet on Alabama
Defense has been the biggest issue for LSU under Brian Kelly, and the Tigers still have some liabilities that Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe could potentially exploit. This is still the No. 43 scoring defense in college football, allowing 23.0 points per game and 24.7 in its last three games.
Meanwhile, Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer’s offense ranks 12th in the nation at 37.6 points per game. The advanced metric expected points added (EPA) per play also shows a promising matchup for the Tide. Alabama is averaging 0.122 EPA per play on the ground, fifth in the nation. LSU’s rush defense sits at -0.50 EPA per play, only 33rd in FBS.
Why bet on LSU
It doesn’t get much tougher in college football than going into Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night. Most respected sports betting handicappers put this in the top tier of home field advantage in the sport.
As far as the matchups, in the trenches is a good place to begin. QB Garrett Nussmeier is a potential first-round pick in the NFL Draft and has barely been touched this season. LSU is No. 3 in FBS in QB sacks allowed per game at just 0.6 per contest. Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense sits only 56th in college football with a 6.43% sack rate.
With that kind of protection, it’s no wonder Nussmeier has been throwing at a top-five rate in FBS this season, dropping back on 60.7% of snaps.
Best bet for Alabama vs. LSU: Alabama -3 (-105, Caesars)
Despite not taking many sacks, Nussmeier has been turning the ball over, with seven of his nine interceptions coming over the past four games. By dropback EPA per play, this is still the No. 18 LSU passing offense against the No. 6 Alabama passing defense.
The contrast is even starker in the ground game. LSU is averaging just 0.05 EPA per rushing play, ranked No. 29 in FBS; whereas, Alabama’s defense is allowing -0.12 EPA per rush, a top-six mark.
Looking at betting market power ratings, most make Alabama about nine points better than LSU on a neutral field. While Tiger Stadium offers one of the best home field advantages in college football, the top tier of HFA in FBS is still usually valued around 3.5 points. Laying only a field goal here presents significant value.
Alabama backers get Jalen Milroe on their side, who gashed LSU for 155 yards and four touchdowns on the ground last season to go along with 219 passing yards in a 42-28 win.
Prediction: Alabama 31, LSU 27