Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 betting preview and best bets

What to look for as each team seeks to gain a two-games-to-one edge in the best-of-five series

Philadelphia avoided an 0-2 hole in the National League Division Series on Sunday, rallying twice while overcoming another dose of Mets magic before a ninth-inning single from Nick Castellanos gave the Phillies a 7-6 victory in a wild Game 2.

The NL East champions awoke from a 3-0 deficit with consecutive sixth-inning homers from Bryce Harper and Castellanos, only to see New York punch back on a Brandon Nimmo home run in the seventh. Edwin Diaz couldn’t hold that lead, but Philadelphia’s three-spot in the eighth was answered by Mark Vientos’ second long ball to tie it in the ninth – the latest in a week full of Mets late-game heroics. The Phillies, though, had the last chance to strike – and did. 

Now the series heads up to Citi Field – where the Mets have not played in more than two weeks. There is no clear-cut favorite for this one. In terms of online betting, Philadelphia has the slight edge on the money line at -112 with New York at -104 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting on the Mets against the spread at +1.5 runs is currently at -184, while taking the Phillies and getting 1.5 runs is at +152. 

Starting pitchers for Game 3

The starting pitching matchup features a pair of veterans. New York sends Sean Manaea to the hill as it looks to maintain home-field advantage. The 32-year-old left-hander has been one of the Mets’ most consistent starters and was particularly great over an 11-start stretch in the second half in which he had a 2.63 ERA with 82 strikeouts to just 16 walks. 

He’s opposed by Aaron Nola, who appeared more like the Cy Young candidate of two years ago – finishing with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.199 WHIP. He’s made 14 career starts at Citi Field with a 3.28 ERA and 108 strikeouts, including a three-hit shutout on May 14.

The Mets are coming off a thrilling week of baseball – from clinching a playoff spot in a roller-coaster game in Atlanta, to Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning three-run homer in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, to stunning the Phillies with a five-run eighth in Game 1 of this series after being stymied by Zach Wheeler.  These NL East rivals have been pretty much even throughout the season, with Philadelphia holding a slight 8-7 edge thus far. 

Below, you will find betting tips and a “best bet” for this NLDS Game 3 which can be made at any of the best online sportsbooks in the US.

Choose Your Home Run Hitters Wisely

Citi Field yielded 99 home runs during the course of the season. That’s in the top half of hitter-friendly ballparks. Game time temperature for this late-afternoon start in Flushing is expected to be in the upper 60s, eventually dropping into the low 60s by the time the game would typically end. And that doesn’t take into account the swirling wind that sometimes hovers around Citi Field. 

While home run hitting may not seem to be quite as frequent, the bevy of power hitters and the vulnerabilities of the starting pitchers make it likely that some balls could find the other side of the wall. 

The teams ranked sixth and seventh in the major leagues in home runs. Manaea let 21 get over the fences during the regular season, while Nola gave up a National League-high 30 round-trippers. Each were tagged for two homers the last time they faced these respective teams. 

Based on matchup history, who are the prime candidates to cash in? 

Home run hitter bets have become extremely popular when betting on baseball. Here are the best shots to hit a home run tonight:

Kyle Schwarber (+320 on FanDuel Sportsbook) has one in his seven at-bats against Manaea. Harper (+400) has taken him deep once over 10 at-bats. Castellanos (+500) has three, including one in their last meeting. 

As for those stepping in against Nola – Alonso (+390) and his five homers would figure to be the most likely Met. Francisco Lindor (+370) has yet to hit one out against the right-hander, but Francisco Alvarez (+630) did on September 13. 

Having the edge in home runs often leads to victory – especially in the postseason. Dating back to 2020, teams that out-homer their opponent win more than 84% of the time.

Best Bet for Phillies vs. Mets, Game 3

Trea Turner Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+290 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

The two-time National League leader ran less frequently this season, much in part to a significant hamstring strain that forced the 30-year-old to miss the better part of May and June. But the threat to run remains. A year after stealing 30 without getting caught, he managed to swipe 19 at an 83% success rate. Four of those came in the final regular season series meeting between the Phils and Mets at Citi Field a couple weeks back. 

Two factors working in Turner’s favor are who is on the mound and who is behind the plate. Opponents have stolen 13 bases on Manaea – the second-most allowed by any Mets pitcher – including three in his final regular season start at Milwaukee.

Couple that with Alvarez, who’s had difficulty throwing runners out. Over the last two seasons, runners have attempted to steal second base 117 times and did so at an 88% success rate. 

The Phillies took advantage of this vulnerability the last time they faced off in Queens. They chalked up five stolen bases in a 12-2 victory on September 20, and five against Edwin Diaz alone on September 22 – two coming from the legs of Turner. The Mets held on for a 2-1 win on that night, but the ease with which Philly ran rampant on the battery of New York’s closer and backstop can’t be lost on either team’s game plans should Diaz be needed again. 

The Mets and Phillies will square off in New York for Game 3 of the NLDS on Tuesday. Check out our preview and predictions before making your bets.