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Texans vs. Cowboys Week 11 Monday Night Football: Game preview and best bet
| WHO | Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys |
| WHEN | Monday, November 18, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | AT&T Stadium | Arlington, Texas |
| HOW | ESPN, ABC |
The Houston Texans are looking to get their season back on track when they visit the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football this week. The Texans (6-4) have lost back-to-back games and three of their last four, but they still own a 1 1/2-game lead in the weak AFC South.
Houston will benefit from the return of star wide receiver Nico Collins, who has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury. Prior to his absence, Collins was leading the NFL with 567 receiving yards, and the Texans’ offense has not looked nearly the same without him. Houston will be relying on Collins even more than before his injury since fellow wideout Stefon Diggs (knee) is out for the season.
The Cowboys (3-6) are also dealing with an injury to a star receiver, as CeeDee Lamb was added to the injury report on Saturday with a back issue. Lamb has only missed one game in his career (way back in 2021) and is expected to play, but a late-week back injury is never a good sign. The Cowboys already are missing several other key players, most notably franchise quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring), who was officially ruled out for the season this week. Dallas has lost four straight in what quickly is becoming a lost season.
Dallas is 0-4 at home and has lost three of those games by 25 or more points, so it’s no surprise that the Texans are touchdown favorites in this matchup. Here are the current betting odds for this game at some of the best online sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans spread | -7 (-118) | -7 (-120) | -7 (-115) |
| Cowboys spread | +7 (-104) | +7 (+100) | +7 (-105) |
| Texans money line | -375 | -325 | -350 |
| Cowboys money line | +300 | +260 | +280 |
| Over | Over 41.5 (-115) | Over 41.5 (-108) | Over 41 (-110) |
| Under | Under 41.5 (-105) | Under 41.5 (-112) | Under 41 (-110) |
Why to bet on the Texans
This is a perfect opportunity for a “get right” game for the Texans. Not only are they getting Collins back, which will be a massive boost, but they also get to match up with a Cowboys team that has been one of the worst in the league, even before Prescott was lost for the season.
The Cowboys’ point differential in their four home games this season is -92. Only five teams in NFL history have had a worse point differential in their first four home games of a campaign. Including last season’s blowout loss at home against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card game, the Cowboys are also the first team in NFL history to trail by 20+ points in five straight home games.
The Texans’ strengths match up very well with the Cowboys’ weaknesses. Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik loves to run the ball with Joe Mixon, almost to a fault. Mixon is leading the league with an average of 21.6 rushing attempts per game. He also has been relatively efficient with those carries, averaging a solid 4.3 yards per rush, which is the second-best mark of his career.
The Cowboys have struggled mightily at stopping the run this season. They are allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game (31st) on 4.7 yards per carry (25th). They also are dead last in EPA allowed per rush and 28th in both DVOA and success rate against the run. Houston should be able to run the ball effectively throughout this game, which will take some pressure off quarterback C.J. Stroud and open up some opportunities for Collins and Tank Dell in the passing game.
The Texans also have had one of the best defenses in the league. They are third in total defense (288 yards allowed per game), second in DVOA and eighth in EPA. Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush struggled mightily against the Philadelphia Eagles last week and could be in for another rough outing against the Texans’ stout defense.
With their efficient rushing attack and a shut-down defense, the Texans have the right formula to deliver another blowout loss to the Cowboys. Even if Dallas plays much better than it has all season, Houston still will have a very good chance to win by at least a touchdown.
Why to bet on the Cowboys
The Cowboys are a proud franchise that cannot be happy with the narratives surrounding the team right now. Owner Jerry Jones was mocked all week in the media for his comments about the sun being an issue at AT&T Stadium. Star pass rusher Micah Parsons was criticized for comments he made about head coach Mike McCarthy’s work ethic and future with the team.
The Cowboys essentially have become a laughingstock around the league, and that type of storyline can either cause a franchise to crumble or galvanize a team and motivate it to play harder and try to change the narrative. That is especially true when a team in that situation is playing on the primetime stage of Monday Night Football.
Just looking at the numbers and the recent performances, it’s hard to find many other reasons to have confidence in the Cowboys right now. It’s also hard to quantify intangible factors like the impact that this week’s storylines could be having inside their locker room. But it’s not crazy to think that Dallas could be extra motivated to disprove the external narratives about the dysfunction plaguing the franchise.
At the end of the day, it’s difficult for any NFL team to cover a 7-point spread on the road. The Texans have not exactly been lighting the league on fire, and Stroud has not looked nearly as sharp this season as he did in his sensational rookie year. It may take a backdoor cover, but with superstar talents like Lamb and Parsons, the Cowboys at least have a chance to keep this game close enough. As the saying goes, anything can happen on any given Sunday (or Monday).
Best bet for Texans vs. Cowboys: Texans -7.0 (-115, BetMGM)
On one side is a team leading its division and getting arguably its most talented player in Collins back from injury. On the other side is a club without its starting quarterback that has been terrible at home this season. When the best argument for a team to cover the spread as a 7-point home underdog is that it might be motivated to change the narrative surrounding its disappointing season, that is probably not a wager that many NFL bettors want to make. The Texans may not deliver the Cowboys another 25-point blowout loss, but they still are a good bet to win by more than a touchdown.