merrill-kelly.jpg

The Minnesota Twins look to extend their scoreless-inning and winning streaks when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday for the finale of their three-game series. The Twins have posted 13 consecutive victories, their longest such streak since a 15-game stretch in 1991, and have gone a team-record 33 straight innings without allowing a run. 

Minnesota, which had three longer scoreless-inning streaks when the franchise was known as the Washington Senators, send Zebby Matthews (NR) to the mound for his first start of 2025. The Brewers, who have been blanked in four of their last five games, counter with Freddy Peralta (4-3, 2.66 ERA).

Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for Peralta at 6.5 (Over +115, Under -150) and Matthews at 4.5 (Over -115, Under -110). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Peralta Under 6.5 as a 3.5-star play on its five-star scale and has not rated Matthews' prop.

The model has found better value on Sunday's 15-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars and another at 4 stars that would pay plus money. Here they are:

Jackson Jobe Over 3.5 strikeouts (-109) vs. Blue Jays (1:37 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts

Jobe has gone Over this number often of late, doing so in three of his last four starts. The 22-year-old right-handed rookie is coming off a victory against the Boston Red Sox in which he registered a career-high seven strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings. Jobe fanned only two batters when he lasted just 3 2/3 frames versus the Colorado Rockies in his previous turn but notched four strikeouts across four innings and five over five frames in his two prior outings.

Yusei Kikuchi Over 4.5 strikeouts (-132) vs. Dodgers (4:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts

Kikuchi has failed to go Over this number only twice in nine starts this season. The 33-year-old Japanese left-hander fell just short in his last turn as he finished with four strikeouts over six innings against the San Diego Padres, who have fanned the fewest amount of times in the major leagues. Kikuchi has registered 27 strikeouts across 23 innings in four career starts versus the Dodgers.

Merrill Kelly Under 6.5 strikeouts (+115) vs. Rockies (4:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts

Kelly recorded eight strikeouts over seven innings against the San Francisco Giants in his last start. However, that marked just the second time he went Over this number in nine turns this season. Even though Colorado has fanned a major league-high 439 times this year, Kelly hasn't exactly been a strikeout machine versus the Rockies over his career, registering 84 across 95 frames in 15 starts.