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UFC 304 betting insights: Why steep lines and weigh-ins matter
Discover our expert UFC betting tips for the upcoming UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 pay-per-view event.
The UFC is going back to England with UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, from Manchester’s famous Co-op Live arena.
Our betting strategies have the potential to aid new UFC bettors in making informed and calculated bets, and might even be of use to seasoned bettors as well.
UFC 304 betting insights: What you must know
UFC betting is different from many other kinds of sports betting, as it presents some unique bet types and terminology that you won’t encounter elsewhere. Here’s what you need to know:
Understanding UFC betting terminology
When you jump into the UFC betting section of a sportsbook, you will see a variety of bet types that aren’t found in other sections. Here are some of the most popular bet types:
- Method of victory: Also referred to as the “winning method” or “how the fight will end.” This bet type allows you to pick who will win the fight and how. In the UFC, a fight can end via knockout (KO), submission (SUB), referee stoppage (TKO), judge’s decision, and in rare circumstances, a doctor’s stoppage or referee disqualification.
- Total rounds: This round prop is the over/under of UFC betting. For example, if the total rounds line is set at 2.5 rounds, a bet on the under means you are wagering that a fight will finish before 2:30 into the third round.
Non-championship UFC fights consist of three rounds, while title bouts extend to five. Other types of round props include picking which round the fight will end and selecting the round that a specific fighter will win in.
You will come into contact with other types of bets in your preferred sportsbook’s UFC section, but most of them are self-explanatory.
Avoid big favorites and big underdogs
Our rule of thumb when it comes to betting on the UFC is to stay away from favorites who are -300 odds or longer and underdogs who are +200 or longer. According to Bet MMA, the ideal odds range for UFC betting is +186 to +150, as slight underdogs have the best return on investment (ROI) based on past data.
Pay attention to the UFC 304 weigh-ins
The UFC men’s division is separated by eight weight classes ranging from flyweight at 125 pounds, to heavyweight at 265 pounds and up. Fighters are mandated to step on the scale in front of that state’s regulatory commission 24 hours before their bout, to ensure they are not over their weight class limit.
There have been many examples of fighters suffering adverse effects from cutting too much weight in a short period of time. In the past, we have seen visibly dehydrated and diminished fighters step on the scale at the weigh-ins 24 hours before their fights, who went on to perform poorly due to lack of endurance, dehydration, headaches, or other weight-cutting symptoms.
So pay attention to the fighters’ physique and body language as they step on the scale during weigh-ins.
Do not bet blindly
This tip isn’t something we would even need to say for NFL, NBA, MLB betting, etc. But for betting on the UFC, it needs to be brought up. Even many of the sport’s biggest fans aren’t familiar with every fighter on every card, so don’t get bummed out if you don’t know some or even most of the athletes at UFC 304.
If you either don’t know a fighter or aren’t willing to familiarize yourself with him/her, do not place a bet on the fight. Only wager on the fights involving fighters who you know.
UFC 304 odds and info
Reigning, defending welterweight champion Leon Edwards will be putting his world title on the line against No. 2-ranked contender Belal Muhammad in the UFC 304 main event.
That isn’t the only title bout of the card. Fellow Englishman and interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall will face off against a long-time division staple Curtis Blaydes.
But before that, fans will get to watch a dozen other bouts take place. Take a look at the entire card, with each matchup’s current odds:
UFC 304 fight card and odds
**The odds below were provided by Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publication**
- Leon Edwards (c) -260 vs. Belal Muhammad +210 | welterweight title
- Tom Aspinall (ic) -370 vs. Curtis Blaydes +290 | interim heavyweight title
- King Green -120 vs. Paddy Pimblett +100 | lightweight bout
- Christian Leroy Duncan -140 vs. Gregory Rodrigues +120 | middleweight bout
- Arnold Allen -230 vs. Giga Chikadze +205 | featherweight bout
- Nathaniel Wood -425 vs. Daniel Pineda +330 | featherweight bout
- Molly McCann -360 vs. Bruna Brasil +280 | Women’s strawweight bout
- Caolan Loughran -195 vs. Jake Hadley +165 | bantamweight bout
- Modestas Bukauskas -155 vs. Marcin Prachnio +130| light heavyweight bout
- Preston Parsons -135 vs. Oban Elliott +115 | welterweight bout
- Muhammad Mokaev -160 vs. Manel Kape +135 | flyweight bout
- Sam Patterson -400 vs. Kiefer Crosbie +310 | welterweight bout
- Mick Parkin -280 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +230 | heavyweight bout
- Shauna Bannon -170 vs. Alice Ardelean +145 | Women’s strawweight bout
UFC 304 key info
- Date: July 27, 2024
- Location: Co-op Live – Manchester, England
- Start time: 10 p.m. ET (Main card)
- How to watch: ESPN+ PPV
UFC 304 betting preview
Below, we will share with you our fight previews for the three biggest bouts scheduled to take place at UFC 304:
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad preview
Leon Edwards hasn’t lost a fight since 2015. Let that sink in. The welterweight champ pulled off one of the UFC’s wildest moments in recent memory by knocking out Kamaru Usman in the fifth round of their 2022 meeting.
His next opponent, Belal Muhammad, has shared the octagon with Edwards once before, in a fight that ended in the second round due to an accidental eye poke from the Brit. It would be quite shocking if Muhammad pulled off the upset, and the odds reflect that.
Notably, Kamaru Usman managed to secure nine of his 27 takedown attempts against Edwards in their two most recent meetings. Edwards has improved his takedown defense, which will bode well versus Muhammad.
If Muhammad struggles to take Edwards down and keep him there he will have a difficult time snatching the welterweight belt from the champ.
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes preview
Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes are going to get to finish what they started back in July 2022. For those who forget, Aspinall suffered a fight-ending knee injury in the early stages of that bout. He has rattled off two straight first-round finishes, including an interim title-winning knockout over Sergei Pavlovich in his last outing.
Blaydes, meanwhile, is 1-1 since that original bout, with his lone win coming by way of knockout over Jailton Almeida. Interestingly, all four of Blaydes’ losses in the UFC have come by way of KO/TKO. Moreover, only five of his 18 appearances have gone the distance.
On the flip side, Aspinall has yet to experience a judge’s decision since joining the UFC. The past trends of these two fighters lead many to believe this fight will end before the final bell.
King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett preview
King Green and Paddy Pimblett will likely put on an electric show at UFC 304, as both fighters are very entertaining in their own right. Pimblett is unbeaten (5-0) since joining the UFC, and Green will serve as his toughest test to date.
Green is an incredibly crafty, and durable striker, and Pimblett has shown a tendency to eat some big shots against lesser competition. This matchup will be a good indication of Pimblett’s true talent, as Green tends to come up short against the elite fighters.