The spotlight's on the middleweight title at UFC 319, where Dricus Du Plessis will be challenged for the middleweight belt by Khamzat Chimaev. Here are Mike DeAugusino's best bets for this weekend's fights. Visit the Inside the Lines blog for all of the team's free picks.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Click here to bet these picks at FanDuel:
Drakkar Klose ML (+114, FanDuel)
This may be the fight where the clock runs out on Edson Barboza. The veteran striker is still dangerous with his kicks, but his speed, chin, and cardio have all dipped noticeably. Against relentless forward pressure from Klose, that's a tough challenge. Klose will crowd Barboza, push him to the cage, mix in clinch work, and wear him down over 15 minutes. The longer it goes, the more Klose is favored. Unless Barboza catches lightning early, this looks like a decision win for Klose. At nearly even odds, there's good value on the fresher fighter.
Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura Over 2.5 rounds (-130, FanDuel)
Elliott is a funky, unorthodox fighter who thrives in gritty, unpredictable fights. Both fighters will likely stand and strike, making this a potential back-and-forth brawl. After Asakura was finished in his last fight, I expect him to take time before fully engaging, which should slow the early pace. Both fighters have strong chins and durability, making early finishes unlikely. This could be one of the night's most exciting fights and a contender for fight of the night.
Lerone Murphy ML (+142, FanDuel)
Aaron Pico is an elite athlete with top-level wrestling, but this is not the matchup he expected. Originally set to fight Movsar Evloev, a grappler, he now faces slick striker Lerone Murphy on short notice — a huge disadvantage. Murphy is undefeated for a reason: clean striking, solid defense, and composure. His takedown defense will make Pico work hard. This style mismatch creates big upset potential. At plus money, Murphy is the sharper, better-timed fighter and our favorite bet of the night.
UFC 319 parlay +459 on FanDuel
Looking for a fun sweat without draining the bankroll? This three-leg parlay mixes value, matchups, and just enough chaos to make things interesting:
Khamzat Chimaev ML (-260): Chimaev has handled the middleweight cut well and should have a massive grappling edge over Dricus du Plessis. Expect control, pressure, and dominance.
Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page — Over 2.5 Rounds (-270): Cannonier hasn't finished anyone inside three rounds since 2022, and MVP is too fast and elusive to get caught clean. Every UFC fight for Page has gone the distance — this one should too.
Geoff Neal ML (+200): Neal still packs serious heat and experience, and his opponent, Prates, didn't look great in his last outing, fading hard until Round 5. Neal at +200 brings real knockout potential and adds juice to the parlay.
