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Vikings vs. Packers Week 4: Odds, picks and best bets- Will Minnesota stay undefeated?
Get the latest betting odds and best bets for the Vikings vs. Packers matchup in Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season.
| WHO | Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|
| WHEN | Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 1:00 P.M. ET |
| WHERE | Lambeau Field | Green Bay, Wisconsin |
| HOW | CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket |
The Vikings and Packers meet this week in the next installment of the greatest rivalry in the NFC North, and one of the best in all of football. While the Bears and Packers have a longer history, that has been less of a rivalry than a one-way beatdown, with the Bears struggling to even stay competitive with Chicago since Brett Favre first donned the “G” helmet.
The Vikings and Packers, meanwhile, have traded blows pretty evenly over their history, with neither team winning more than five straight against the other going back to the 1970s. And although the Lions vaulted to their first NFC North crown ever last year, the Black and Blue division has usually been led by a team wearing gold, accented with either green or purple, as the Vikings and Packers have combined to win over 75% of the division titles over the last three decades, with the Bears and Lions (and Bucs, before 2002) deep in the rearview mirror.
This week’s Packers/Vikings matchup again will feature the division leader, but surprisingly, it is the Minnesota Vikings on top of the NFC North at 3-0, with the Packers right behind them at 2-1. These teams also lead the division in point differential (with the Vikings third in the NFL at +55 and the Packers eighth at +17), net EPA/play (Vikings third in the NFL at 0.28, Packers fourth at 0.23) and DVOA (Vikings fourth in Total DVOA at 43.6%, Packers seventh at 23.8%). No matter how you slice it, these have been the best teams in the division through three weeks of the 2024 season, and NFL betting sites have the Packers favored in this showdown by around a field goal.
The Vikings offense ranks third in the NFL thanks to the incredible resurgence of Sam Darnold, who would probably be the NFL MVP if the award was given today. He leads the league in touchdown passes despite his star tight end T.J. Hockenson having yet to take the field, while star wide receiver Jordan Addison has missed the last two games, and the best wide receiver in football, Justin Jefferson, has missed more than half the second half snaps the last two weeks thanks to injuries.
The Packers offense has overcome the absence of Jordan Love to win each of the last two weeks behind a dominant running game, which leads the NFL in both rushing attempts and yards, while second in yards per carry. Both offenses look to be closer to full strength this week, as Jefferson is good to go, and both Love and Addison started the week as limited participants in practice with an eye towards week four returns.
The Vikings defense has also been dominant, leading the league in sacks while also being third against the run. Brian Flores’s pre-snap motion and complicated schemes have befuddled young star quarterbacks Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud the past two weeks. The Packers defense has also thrived on the big play, leading the league with nine takeaways, while also avoiding penalties (just 12 penalties against, fewest in the league).
Here are the current betting odds for Vikings vs. Packers at some of the top sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article and will be updated as gameday approaches.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings spread | +3 (-115) | +3 (-118) | +2.5 (-105) |
| Packers spread | -3 (-105) | -3 (-102) | -2.5 (-115) |
| Vikings moneyline | +128 | +120 | +126 |
| Packers moneyline | -152 | -142 | -150 |
| Over | Over 44.5 (-106) | Over 43.5 (-112) | Over 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 44.5 (-114) | Under 43.5 (-108) | Under 43.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Vikings
By just about every metric, the Vikings come into this game the better team. They also will not be awed by the Lambeau Field mystique; the teams have split the last nine games played in Green Bay (four wins for each team and a tie). In last year’s matchup the Vikings defense dominated Love, holding him to a 59% completion percentage, under 4.8 yards per dropback and a 19.8 QBR. They also held the Packers running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to just 40 yards in 13 carries, as they cruised to a 24-10 victory despite an injury to Kirk Cousins in what turned out to be his final game as a Viking.
With Jefferson and Addison both at 100% for the first time all season, Sam Darnold will have more weapons at his disposal. And former Packers running back Aaron Jones, now starring for the Vikings, will be motivated to show the Lambeau faithful that they made a mistake choosing Josh Jacobs over him this past offseason.s.
The line in this game indicates the clear assumption that Jordan Love will be back, as the Packers were underdogs to two much worse AFC South teams each of the last two weeks without him. To the extent there is any question about Love’s availability, betting on the Vikings now gives you free points in case he ends up missing another game. Even if he is playing, it will be his first action in three weeks against a defense that has flummoxed every other QB it has faced this season.
If you do choose to bet on the Vikings, you can currently get the key number of three points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Why bet on the Packers
Yes, Jordan Love struggled at home versus the Vikings last year, so much so that there were questions after that game about whether he was even meant to be the long-term solution in Green Bay. But what happened after that game? Love immediately turned into one of the best quarterbacks in football, including a revenge game against the Vikings in Minnesota in December, when Love threw for three touchdowns and ran for another as the Packers won a 33-10 laugher.
The success the Packers have enjoyed on the ground without Love may force the Minnesota defense to keep at least seven men in the box, which will open up downfield opportunities for Love’s seemingly endless supply of receiving targets.
On the other side of the ball, one of these days Sam Darnold is going to turn back into a pumpkin. If there’s any team who can turn the man with more interceptions than touchdowns in the four seasons preceding this one back into what we thought he was, it would be the Packers with their league-leading seven interceptions.
And while we noted the Vikings’ relative success in Lambeau above, they still have not won consecutive regular season games there in over thirty years. History indicates that when the Vikings get the Packers number in Green Bay one year, the Packers get revenge the next.
Best bet for Vikings vs. Packers: Justin Jefferson Over 90 receiving yards (+140, DraftKings)
Picking a side on either the point spread or Over/Under is a difficult task in what should be a scintillating battle for first place in the NFC North. What we do know is this: In just the first half last week, Justin Jefferson had 81 receiving yards. In just the first half the week before, he had 133 receiving yards. He did not have a catch in the second half of either game, because of both injury (which caused him to miss second half time in both games) as well as game script (the Vikings were winning big). But if you do not believe the Vikings are going to win another blowout, and you do not think Jefferson is going to get hurt again, then he is unlikely to put up another second half goose egg this week.
And since he’s averaging nearly 90 receiving yards per first half this season, he seems a safe bet to total that over the course of the entire game, especially at that +140 number being offered at DraftKings.
Longshot bet for Vikings vs. Packers: Christian Watson First TD Scorer (+1400, FanDuel)
On the very first regular season play of Christian Watson’s career in 2022, Aaron Rodgers found him wide open down the right sideline against the Vikings for what should have been a 65-yard touchdown, only for Watson to let the ball fall through his hands. Watson still has yet to score a touchdown versus the Vikings, but we are looking for a longshot bet that could align with a reasonable game script, and the Packers reestablishing their dominant rushing attack early to get to midfield, only to then pull a play action bomb to Watson down the sideline for six fits that narrative.
