usatsi-bridget-carleton-lynx.jpg
USATSI

The WNBA had the Fourth of July off, but the action resumes Saturday, July 5, with two big games on the schedule. The Indiana Fever host the Los Angeles Sparks at 7 p.m. ET on NBA TV, and the Fever will again be without star guard Caitlin Clark, who is missing her fifth straight game with a groin injury. The night's other contest sees the Minnesota Lynx, who have the top record in the WNBA's at 15-2, host the league's newest franchise, the Golden State Valkyries, at 8 p.m. ET.

If you're interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites, then you need to check out today's WNBA best bets for Saturday, July 5. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Today's WNBA picks:

  • Kelsey Plum Under 19.5 points -115 (1 unit, DK)
  • Valkyries +9.5 -110 (1 unit, DK)

Kelsey Plum Under 19.5 points

There are two key factors behind this bet. First, Plum has come back down to earth after a ridiculous month of May. The second? The Fever's stingy defense of late. 

After averaging 24.0 points per game in May, she scored 17.9 points per game in nine games in June. She also took 18.1 shots per game in May compared to 14.6 in June, which makes sense as Plum had to lead the offensive charge for the Sparks since Rickea Jackson missed most of May.

As for the Fever, they became the first team this year to allow fewer than 60 points in consecutive games after the Lynx scored 59 and the Aces scored 54. Their perimeter defense has been outstanding, and just one guard scored at least 10 points between those two games (Lynx guard Courtney Williams with 11). Stephanie White had been known for her defense while she was the head coach for the Sun, and she's made major strides in that area in her first season with the Fever. 

Valkyries +9.5

First-year head coach Natalie Nakase is simply a wizard as the Valkyries have gone 5-2 in their last seven games despite a few players leaving for EuroBasket and dealing with other injuries. This will be the first game back for Janelle Salaun (11.8 PPG) since June 9 and Cecilia Zandalasini (10.0 PPG) since June 7. 

This is Golden State's first stop on a 4-game road trip over eight days (keep this in mind for later stops on the trip as a chance to fade the Valkyries), but they've been off since Sunday, so this is a well-rested group. 

The Lynx are first in the WNBA in offensive rating and defensive rating, but they've played a pretty easy schedule. Minnesota hasn't faced the 12-5 Liberty yet. The two times the Lynx played the 12-6 Mercury, Phoenix was without Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper. They've gone up against the 11-7 Dream once, and needed to rally down 7 points with under 3 minutes left to escape in overtime. They've actually been outscored by a total of five points (10-point loss, 5-point win) in their two meetings with the 11-7 Storm.

The point is, I think the Lynx have been feasting on weaker opponents and aren't as good as their 15-2 record. The Valkyries are 9-7 despite having played with a shorthanded roster for at least half of their games. These two teams have the WNBA's two best defensive ratings, so it's easy to envision a defensive struggle—making that 9.5-point spread even more enticing with the score likely on the lower end. 

Overall record: 31-32, +3.09 units