angel-reese.png
Imagn Images

There are two WNBA games on Saturday, and each one features one of the best teams in the WNBA. The 10-4 Phoenix Mercury hit the road again for a battle against the Chicago Sky at 1 p.m. ET on ABC, while the 11-1 Minnesota Lynx host the Los Angeles Sparks at 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV. 

Looking to get in on WNBA betting at the best betting sites? How about the top WNBA player props? Let's check out the best plays for Saturday, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.

Today's WNBA picks:

Mercury vs. Sky picks

  • Sky 1H +6.5 -112 (1 unit, DK)
  • Kamilla Cardoso 8+ rebounds (0.5 units, FD)

The Sky aren't the most fun team to back, but I'll trust the spot here. The Mercury are coming off a massive 89-81 road win over the New York Liberty, giving 10-2 New York its first home loss of the season. This was also an extremely physical contest with a lot of trash talk. After that effort, there may be a bit of a letdown here for the Mercury playing the lowly Sky and Phoenix could be a bit sluggish out of the gates. This is also the third road game in four days for the Mercury, and their fourth road game in seven days. 

Even though the Sky are 3-8 on the season, they've actually led at halftime in six of their 11 games, including each of their past three. Chicago also has a big advantage in this game with its rebounding. 

The Mercury aren't the biggest team, with 6-foot-4 Satou Sabally the tallest player in the starting lineup. Phoenix grabs 68.4% of its defensive rebounding opportunities, which is the third-worst mark in the WNBA. On overall rebound chances, the Mercury grab the board 48.7% of the time, which is the fifth-worst mark. In their past three games, they've played the three worst overall rebounding teams, which included the Las Vegas Aces without an injured A'ja Wilson (Wilson is second in WNBA in rebounds at 10.1 per game) and a Liberty team that saw Jonquel Jones (Jones is third in WNBA at 9.6 RPG) leave early in the second quarter due to injury and didn't return. 

Now the Mercury play the Sky, who are first in the WNBA in both rebounding percentage (53.9%) and offensive rebounding percentage (39.4%). Chicago will get its fair share of additional shot opportunities over Phoenix because of the team's ability to create second chances for itself on the offensive glass. With the Mercury just putting forth a monster effort against the Liberty last game, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Sky coming out with more juice at home and winning the fight for loose balls, especially early on. 

Kamilla Cardoso also has a few inches on the Mercury's starting lineup, as she stands at 6-foot-7. She doesn't get as much publicity as her double-double machine teammate Angel Reese, but Cardoso has grabbed at least nine rebounds in three of her past four games and had nine rebounds against the Mercury in their first matchup back in late May. 

Napheesa Collier Over 3.5 assists -146 (0.5 units, FD)

Collier is questionable to play after leaving last game against the Aces with a back injury early in the third quarter. The fact that she isn't 100% makes this a half-unit play instead of a full unit, but I'll explain the assists logic in my handicap. 

The Lynx played this same Sparks team a week ago, and Collier had the most unstoppable half I've seen in the WNBA this season. She put up 26 points in the first two quarters against the Sparks on 10-of-12 shooting and matched Los Angeles' score at halftime (26) by herself. She scored just six points the rest of the way in a 101-78 win, as the Sparks doubled her to slow her down, and she sat for six of 10 minutes in the fourth quarter of a blowout. Thanks to those doubles, Collier was able to find able teammates and also registered a season-high six assists in that game against the Sparks. 

I don't think the Sparks will remember her passing as much as her torching them from the field, and I expect them to attack Collier with doubles again and make the other Lynx players beat them if she ends up playing. Collier, though, is a willing passer and has recorded at least four assists in six of her past seven games—with the one exception being against the Aces last game, where she left in the third quarter with her back injury. 

Overall Record: 23-22, +6.23 units