2019 NCAA Tournament: Iowa vs. Cincinnati odds, picks, predictions from proven model on 11-5 run

It's a matchup of a high-scoring offense against a lock-it-down defense as the Iowa Hawkeyes face off with the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament on Friday at 12:40 p.m. ET in Columbus, Ohio. The No. 7-seeded Bearcats (28-6) finished second to Houston in the AAC before knocking off the Cougars in the conference tournament finals. No. 10 Iowa (22-11) has lost five of six, but owns victories over Michigan, Iowa State and Oregon, among others. The latest Iowa vs. Cincinnati odds have the Bearcats favored by 4.5 points, with the over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, at 137.5. These teams have very differing styles, so before locking in any Iowa vs. Cincinnati picks of your own, you'll want to check out the 2019 NCAA Tournament predictions from SportsLine's projection model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered the postseason on a strong 11-5 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has analyzed all relevant data and crunched the numbers for Iowa vs. Cincinnati. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it also has a strong point-spread pick that hits in over 50 percent of simulations. That pick is only available at SportsLine. 

The model has taken into account that Cincinnati goes into Friday with momentum after beating Houston 69-57 on Sunday. The Bearcats are certainly hotter than the Hawkeyes, who have lost five of six, the most-recent a 74-53 rout at the hands of Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. The Hawkeyes have covered the spread just once over their last nine games.

Cincinnati allows only 62.2 ppg, 14th-fewest in the nation. On offense, they have an unusual amount of depth for a team that's defense-first, and they have one of the nation's top playmakers in 6-5 junior Jarron Cumberland. He averaged 18.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.5 apg and 1.2 spg, while hitting more than 40 percent of his 3-point attempts, earning AAC Player of the Year honors. Iowa has had issues with high-scoring standouts, going 6-8 when an opposing player scores more than 20.

But just because the Bearcats are the higher seed and close to home doesn't mean they can cover the Iowa vs. Cincinnati spread and advance in the 2019 NCAA bracket.

Iowa is among the nation's premier 3-point shooting teams. It's hitting eight treys per game and faces a Bearcats defense that ranks 213th against the three (35.2 percent). With all the long-range gunners, the Hawkeyes have a go-to post standout in junior Tyler Cook, who leads the team in scoring (14.9 points per game) and rebounding (7.9).

And they have a clutch performer in Jordan Bohannon, whose 75 points in the final two minutes of games and overtime is tops in the nation. Iowa may be coming into March Madness 2019 in a funk, but it is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 neutral-site games, while Cincinnati has covered just twice in its last 11 overall.

Who wins Cincinnati vs. Iowa? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Cincinnati vs. Iowa spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed college hoops, and find out.

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