Selection Sunday is officially in the rearview, which means the 2022 NCAA Tournament bracket is out and (most likely!) you've already begun putting in work for this year's office pool. Good on ya. We salute the work. But before you finalize that submission, we've got the Midwest Region to preview. So, please, grab a pen and paper and sit through a brief class as we arm you with knowledge.
The Midwest Region is pretty stacked at the top, which makes this region in particular feel like it could be pretty chalky. Kansas, the No. 1 seed, won the Big 12 regular season (as a co-champ with Baylor) and conference tournament. Auburn, the No. 2 seed, was at one point the No. 1 team in the country, but an early SEC tourney exit killed any chances it had of earning a 1-seed. Wisconsin, the No. 3 seed, was the co-Big Ten regular season champ atop a league that got nine (!) teams into the Big Dance. Stacked, stacked, stacked.
That's to say nothing of the depth of this region, which is solid but not spectacular and comprised of a mish-mash of teams. Providence, the Big East winner, is the No. 4 seed. Iowa, maybe the hottest team in the country after winning the Big Ten Tournament, is the No. 5 seed. On down the line there's 5-seed LSU, which just fired its coach; 12-seed Richmond, which snuck into the bracket on the final day; and others capable of winning multiple games despite double-digit numbers next to their name.
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Let's break down the Midwest Region further as the opening games of the 2022 NCAA Tournament approach.
Best first-round game
(8) San Diego State vs. (9) Creighton: Vegas has San Diego State as just a 2.5-point favorite in this one, which makes it the closest spread among all first-round games in the region. So, of course it looks to be the best game. It features a matchup against an Aztecs team that ranks No. 2 in adjusted efficiency on defense and a Bluejays team that ranks No. 18 in the same KenPom metric. Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out game. I really like SDSU's chances here to hold off a young Creighton team that made significant strides down the stretch.
Top potential matchup
(1) Kansas vs. (2) Auburn: Both KU and Auburn have been ranked inside the top 10 for most of the season. This is the one we want to see, which would decide who advances to the Final Four. It'd feature two likely lottery picks in Ochai Agbaji (KU) and Jabari Smith (Auburn), but the real intrigue would be in the post with KU big David McCormack and Auburn big Walker Kessler -- one of the sport's best shot-blockers -- likely going head to head. Kessler's length and ability to affect shots would really be impactful against a KU team that likes to get to the cup and finish around the paint.
Upset lock of the regional
(13) South Dakota State over (4) Providence: No. 13 seeds are 31-113 in the Round of 64, according to CBS research, so I'm not going to say this one is an absolute lock. History suggests the Friars advance. And look: Providence is really good, they play physical, and the proof -- winning a top-four league -- speaks for itself. But I am telling you that this is an upset I've got in every one of my brackets. South Dakota State is 30-4 on the season and enters the tournament having won its last 21 games dating all the way back to mid-December. This is a brutal matchup for the Friars, so if you're going to take a big upset by seeding, this is the one in the Midwest I've circled in sharpie.
Cinderella team that will surprise
(14) Colgate: A year ago, Colgate was a team that absolutely surprised in the first round of the tournament, pushing Arkansas to much discomfort as a 14-seed before eventually falling to the Razorbacks. I expect that to again be the case. Against a Wisconsin team that got bounced in its first Big Ten tourney game and led by a banged-up star, Johnny Davis, the Raiders, who have won 19 of their last 20, are in prime position to make Wisconsin plenty uncomfortable -- and perhaps a realistic Cinderella that could make a run in this bracket.
Team that will make a far-too-early exit
(2) Auburn: On Feb. 5, Auburn was the No. 1 team in the country with a perfect 10-0 record in SEC play and a 22-1 overall record. But the wheels got a little creaky down the stretch. The Tigers lost four of their final nine games and had to go to OT against a not-so-good Mississippi State team to get one of those wins. The way they played down the stretch is not No. 2 seed-good. They earned that, no doubt, and I thought overall they had an outside shot at a 1. But recent inconsistency makes this team especially vulnerable, and I've got them stumbling before the Elite Eight in my own bracket.
Six players to watch
Ochai Agbaji, Kansas: If No. 1 seed Kansas is to go far, it will do so on the back of its superstar senior, Ochai Agbaji. He's been sensational this season as the team's alpha dog, canning a career-high 40.5% of his 3s, averaging a tick under 20 points per game and adding some playmaking, too. With backcourt teammate Remy Martin back in the action, Agbaji should face less attention than in previous weeks, and he's liable on any night to drop 30 in the bucket as one of the tourney's brightest stars.
Johnny Davis, Wisconsin: Wisconsin won a slice of the Big Ten regular season and really had no business doing so. Johnny Davis was really that good. He's a three-level scorer and he tends to save his best performances for the biggest games. He's coming off an ankle injury that seemed to hobble him in the conference tournament, so his health is one of the biggest storylines of this region.
Keegan Murray, Iowa: Two observations: Iowa has a case to be dubbed the hottest team in the sport right now, and Keegan Murray has a case to be dubbed the hottest player in the sport. I think I believe both of those things. Murray led the Hawkeyes to a Big Ten Tournament title with four wins in four days, averaging 25.8 points per game and hitting 14 of 26 3-point attempts (53.8%) during the run.
Jabari Smith, Auburn: Despite Auburn's stumbling to the finish line, freshman Jabari Smith, a likely top-five pick, was sensational down the stretch, averaging 23.7 points per game in his final seven games. Next to shot-blocking superstar and teammate Walker Kessler, Smith has settled in comfortably as the Tigers' No. 1 scoring option, and a deep run likely rests on his broad shoulders.
Matt Bradley, San Diego State: In a loaded Mountain West, Bradley followed up a career junior year with a stellar senior season, averaging 17.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and hitting 41.6% from 3. The Aztecs star holds the keys to their tourney hopes as a potential sleeper in this region. If they get out of the first round, they'll match up well against No. 1 seed Kansas, where anything could happen.
Jacob Gilyard, Richmond: Richmond stunned the sport with four wins in four days to take the A-10 tournament thanks to Gilyard's exceptional run. He turned in 26 points in the title game win over No. 1 seed Davidson, just two days after a season-high 32 points in a win over VCU. He's playing his best ball of the season right now on a Spiders team that's coming together at the right time.
Midwest Region winner
(1) Kansas: Losses sprinkled about at the end of the regular season largely kept the spotlight off of Kansas, but the top-seeded Jayhawks are the clear favorite to advance to the Final Four out of this bracket. After winning the Big 12 tournament and claiming a share of the league's regular-season title, Bill Self's squad is primed for yet another deep run. After a second-round flameout a year ago as a 3-seed, this team should be a little more seasoned and a little more ready to advance to the second weekend.
Agbaji's play will dictate all. He slumped late in the season but had a really nice Big 12 tournament showing on the whole. His shot-making and defense is key. So, too, is Remy Martin's presence. The ASU transfer played his most minutes in three months against Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, and his ability to facilitate and create his own shot is exactly what KU's been missing in spurts.
KU knows what it has in the frontcourt with big man David McCormack and super senior Mitch Lightfoot, who has given the Jayhawks solid play down the stretch. There's really no major holes in this team.
