Bracket Voodoo: Top picks and undervalued teams for your March Madness bracket
Knowing the favorites is only the first step in filling out a winning March Madness bracket
By
Brad Null
•
3 min read
Brad Null (@bradnull) is the founder of bracketvoodoo.com, the worldâs most advanced NCAA Tournament bracket analysis and optimization engine. Try it out now at www.bracketvoodoo.com
On Sunday we broke down the favorites to win the 2017 NCAA Tournament, and our models came up with North Carolina, Gonzaga, and Villanova as the three most likely teams to win the tournament. But knowing the favorites is only the first step in filling out a winning March Madness bracket. You also need to look for undervalued teamsâteams that have a real chance of advancing in the NCAA tournament but are being overlooked by the general public.
Our bracketvoodoo.com optimization engine looks at this public pick data alongside all of the historical game and player data to evaluate millions of bracket combinations and determine optimal brackets for NCAA Tournament pools of various size and scoring parameters. Here are five teams that our analysis has uncovered as teams that could give you an edge in your bracket this year.
The Tar Heels are the most likely team to cut down the nets according to our analysis with a 14.2 percent chance, and this probability is at least twice that of any other team coming out of their half of the bracket. For that reason, North Carolina is the easy choice out of this half of the bracket (especially for smaller pools) and is also a generally strong pick as the overall champion.
Gonzaga is the 2nd ranked team in our Power Rankings, and the 2nd most likely team to win the Championship according to our projections; just a hair behind UNC at 13.8 percent. On top of this, the Bulldogs are getting picked by the general public about half as often as other favorites like Villanova and North Carolina (8 percent versus 14+ percent). Obviously, their relatively weak conference schedule is scaring away a lot of people, despite their general dominance this season (even against some strong non-conference opponents). This creates an opportunity for your bracket. As such, we see them as a solid champion pick in smaller and medium-sized pools
The Midwest is the most wide open region, and our models give Louisville about as much chance to win it as anyone (25 percent versus 27 percent for No. 1 seeded Kansas). Despite this, Kansas is getting picked to advance about 3x as often as Louisville is. This makes the Cardinals a great play to advance to the Final Four in just about any bracket, and even a solid championship pick in larger pools.
The Mountaineers are sporting eight losses, but they have been competitive in those games, and they have been dominant at certain times this season (including big wins over Kansas and Baylor). All in all, our algorithms see them as a legitimate contender, and give them over a 5 percent chance of winning the tournament. Despite this, less than 1 percent of people are picking them. If they can get past a tough Gonzaga team, they are a strong pick to make a deep run in the tourney.
The Shockers seem to always be a factor in the tourney whether they are a No. 1 seed or a double digit seed. This year should prove no different. They are quite possibly the most under-seeded team ever (as a 10 seed versus a No. 12 ranking on our Power Ranks). As such we see them as a clear favorite against Dayton in the first round and with a legitimate shot at the Final Four (8 percent chance) despite strong regional favorites in North Carolina and Kentucky. We arenât the only people touting them, but still only about 1 percent of people are penciling them into the Final Four making them the best pick if you want to take a flyer on a double-digit seed to make it to Glendale or even win it all.
While everyone should consider these teams, how far you should project them in your bracket is a function of your pool specifics, most notably your poolâs size and scoring system. Louisville may not be a great pick in your mega-pool. On the other hand, you might seriously consider Wichita State to win it all in that 3,000 person mega-pool, but the Shockers would be a foolish pick in your 10-person office pool.
Check out the bracketvoodoo.com March Madness optimization engine now to find more top picks and identify which picks work best for your particular bracket. You can also enter your top picks in our Bracket Analyzer and learn your chances of winning and some additional advice on how to make your bracket better.
