Davidson vs. Dayton odds, line: College basketball picks, predictions from proven model on 16-8 run

Davidson looks to keep its perfect home record intact against visiting Dayton as Atlantic 10 Conference contenders meet Tuesday. Davidson (19-6, 10-2) is tied with VCU for the conference lead, while Dayton (16-9, 8-4) sits in fourth place in the standings, two games back. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET from Belk Arena. Amplifying the game's importance is the fact this is their only meeting of the season.

The Wildcats are favored by three points in the latest Davidson vs. Dayton odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 133. Before making any Dayton vs. Davidson picks of your own, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 16 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 16-8 run on top-rated college basketball side picks either against the spread or on the money line. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now the model has dialed in on the Dayton vs. Davidson spread. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it has a strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account that Davidson has been on a roll. The Wildcats have won two in a row and 10 of 12, including a win over VCU, and are 12-0 on their home floor. Davidson is looking for its second consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and fifth in eight years.

The Wildcats are led by sophomore guard Kellan Grady (16.7 ppg), who has had a pair of monster games this month. Grady scored 28 points at Fordham Feb. 12 and had 29 at St. Bonaventure Feb. 1. If the game comes down to the free-throw line, Davidson has the edge. The Wildcats rank 41st in the country in free throw percentage (74.6), while Dayton is 265th (68 percent).

But just because Davidson has been dominant at home does not guarantee the Wildcats will win or even cover against the Flyers.

The Flyers have also been hot of late, winning 11 of 15, including three of the last four on the road. They are 4-3 away from home overall. The Flyers have won three of the last four meetings against Davidson, including last year. Dayton has proven to be a good shooting team this season and has a slight edge over the Wildcats. The Flyers are fourth in the nation in field goal percentage (50.3), compared to 164th for Davidson (44.8).

Sophomore Obi Toppin, the Flyers' second-leading scorer (13.6 ppg), has been red hot of late. He has surpassed his average in five of the past six games, including 26 points vs. Duquesne on Feb. 2, and 25 points against Saint Joseph's on Jan. 29. Sophomore guard Jalen Crutcher (13.3 ppg) has also been a force, equaling or surpassing his average in three of four, including 20 points against Rhode Island.

So who wins Dayton vs. Davidson? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dayton vs. Davidson spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $5,200 on its college basketball picks the past two years, and find out.

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