A pair of struggling ACC teams meet when the Duke Blue Devils face the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday. The Blue Devils (5-4) have lost two in a row and are seventh in the ACC at 3-2. Louisville (9-3), meanwhile, has also lost two straight and is sixth in the conference at 4-2. Duke has had the upper hand in the series of late, winning three of the past four meetings.
Tip-off from KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky., is slated for 4 p.m. ET. Duke leads the all-time series 10-7, although the series is tied 3-3 in games played at Louisville. The Cardinals are three-point favorites in the latest Duke vs. Louisville odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 141. Before making any Louisville vs. Duke picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Duke vs. Louisville spread: Louisville -3
- Duke vs. Louisville over-under: 141 points
- Duke vs. Louisville money line: Duke +140; Louisville -160
- DUKE: The last time the Blue Devils played at Louisville, they overcame a 23-point deficit with 9:05 remaining to win 71-69 on Feb. 12, 2019
- UL: Has started with a 9-3 record or better in each of the last 11 seasons
Why Louisville can cover
The Cardinals have three players averaging in double figures, led by senior guard Carlik Jones. The graduate transfer is the only player in the conference to rank among the top five in scoring (third at 17.9 points per game) and assists (third at 4.7). He is also among the ACC leaders in minutes played (second at 37.3), free throw percentage (fourth at .810), assist-to-turnover ratio (sixth at 2.00), field goal percentage (15th at .434) and steals (15th at 1.4). He scored a season-high 25 points at Miami with seven assists and three steals, his third 20-point outing of the season and 29th of his collegiate career.
Also powering the Louisville offense is sophomore guard David Johnson, who is averaging 13.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, which is sixth-best in the ACC. He had scored in double digits in seven consecutive games before being limited to five points in two games. The last time out, however, he scored 15 points and grabbed eight rebounds against Florida State. Johnson has scored 17 or more points in six of his 12 games.
Why Duke can cover
The Blue Devils haven't had any trouble scoring and have six players averaging 7.1 points per game or better. Sophomore Matthew Hurt leads Duke in scoring at 18.9 points per game and is averaging 8.2 rebounds. He won last week's ACC Player of the Week and Oscar Robertson National Player of the Week honors, and has nearly doubled his per-game scoring average from last season, 9.7 to 18.9. Hurt has scored 17 or more points in seven of nine games this season, and three of his four career double-doubles have come this year.
Freshman guard DJ Steward is also making his presence felt, averaging 13.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. He is hitting 80 percent of his free throws. Steward was the ACC Freshman of the Week for Jan. 11, the second time he has won the award. He combined for 35 points against Boston College and Wake Forest, and had a season-high 24 points in the season opener against Coppin State.
How to make Duke vs. Louisville picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting both teams to combine for 146 points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Louisville vs. Duke? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.