Duke vs. Miami odds, line: 2020 college basketball picks, Jan. 21 predictions from computer model on 6-2 run

After back-to-back losses in disappointing fashion, Mike Krzyzewski and the Duke Blue Devils (15-3, 5-2 ACC) will aim for a home win on Tuesday evening. Duke welcomes the Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes (10-7, 2-5 ACC) to Durham in a nationally-televised battle, with Jim Larranaga and company looking to pull a substantial upset. 

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Sportsbooks list the Blue Devils as 17.5-point home favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 149.5 in the latest Miami vs. Duke odds. Before making any Duke vs. Miami picks or college basketball predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also enters Week 12 of the 2019-20 season on a 6-2 run on top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it during that span has seen some handsome returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Miami. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Miami vs. Duke:

  • Duke vs. Miami spread: Duke -17.5
  • Duke vs. Miami over-under: 149.5 points
  • Duke vs. Miami money line: Duke -2688, Miami +1064
  • MIA: The Hurricanes are 5-3 against the spread in the last eight games
  • DUKE: The Blue Devils have failed to cover in three of the last four games

Why Miami can cover

The model knows that Miami does have some advantages, despite the perception of a potentially one-sided battle. Duke struggles mightily at the free-throw line, converting only 66.9 percent of their attempts this season, and that ranks the Blue Devils outside the top 250 in the country. In a close game, that edge could be huge for Miami, and the Hurricanes should also be able to create steals, with opponents producing a robust 10.1 percent steal rate against Duke this season. 

With junior guard Chris Lykes leading the way with 16.1 points per game, the Hurricanes do have a strong offense overall. Miami is also a strong 3-point shooting team, knocking down 35.7 percent of their attempts, and shots from beyond the arc are often a great equalizer in the world of college basketball. 

Why Duke can cover

Even with the line set at 17.5 points, the the Hurricanes aren't a lock to cover the Duke vs. Miami spread. The model has also considered that the Blue Devils are an elite team on both ends, and that is backed up by off-the-charts efficiency metrics on both ends. Duke is also an elite offensive rebounding team and, considering Miami lands outside the top 300 nationally in protecting the defensive glass, that is a stark edge. 

The Blue Devils do have a minor weakness in a lack of ball security offensively, giving the ball away on 18.6 percent of possessions, but Miami's defense struggles to create havoc on the defensive end. Duke is also above average on the defensive glass and keeping its opponents off the free-throw line, avoiding easy points for the opposition, and the Blue Devils cap off their profile in producing top-15 rates nationally in both block and steal percentage defensively. 

How to make Duke vs. Miami picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations.

So who wins Duke vs. Miami? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Miami vs. Duke spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.  

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