Two college basketball blue-bloods collide Sunday when 1-seed Duke and 2-seed Michigan State meet in a highly-anticipated 2019 NCAA Tournament Elite 8 matchup. Tip-off from the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., is set for 5:05 p.m. ET. This star-studded showdown features two Hall of Fame coaches, as Duke's Mike Krzyzewski holds a distinct advantage over Michigan State's Tom Izzo. In fact, Krzyzewski boasts a remarkable 11-1 record against Izzo, including a 3-1 mark in the NCAA Tournament. However, in those 12 meetings, each team covered six times. Now, the pair will meet with a trip to the 2019 Final Four on the line. Coach K's Blue Devils are favored by two in the latest Duke vs. Michigan State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 150.5, down three from the opener. Before making any Duke vs. Michigan State picks of your own, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It's also on fire in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, calling 14 of the Sweet 16 teams straight-up. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Duke vs. Michigan State. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that Duke has won its past two games by a combined three points. The Blue Devils survived a second-half surge from UCF in the second round and then came from behind to beat Virginia Tech by two in the Sweet 16.
The Blue Devils have had plenty of success against Michigan State in recent years, winning five consecutive games against the Spartans. The Blue Devils will need another clutch performance from their freshmen phenoms if they want to advance to the Final Four. Zion Williamson has scored 80 total points in three tournament games, while R.J. Barrett dropped 18 points and 11 assists against Virginia Tech. However, it was Tre Jones who led the charge for Duke against the Hokies. Jones went 5-of-7 from behind the arc for a career-high 22 points, and he'll need to be a main facilitator again on Sunday for the Blue Devils to have success.
But just because the Blue Devils have plenty of firepower does not guarantee they cover the Duke vs. Michigan State spread in the Elite Eight on Sunday.
Michigan State, making its 22nd straight NCAA Tournament appearance and 33rd overall, has reached nine Final Fours and won two national championships. Michigan State also has the edge over the Blue Devils in field goal and 3-point percentage. The Spartans are 14th nationally in field goal percentage (48.6) compared to Duke, which is 28th at 47.7.
Their biggest edge is in 3-point shooting, where the Spartans are 24th overall (38.1 percent), while Duke is 331st at 30.7. Michigan State is led by Big Ten Player of the Year Cassius Winston, who had 26 points in the first-round win over Bradley and is the only player in the country averaging at least 18 points per game, seven assists and shooting 40 percent from 3-point range.
And Duke may be without star forward Cam Reddish, who is a game-time decision with a knee injury. Reddish sat out Duke's extremely tight victory against Virginia Tech on Friday.
So who wins Michigan State vs. Duke? And which side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. Duke spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $4,000 on its college basketball picks, and find out.