Mike Krzyzewski and the Duke Blue Devils host Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans on Tuesday night at 7:30 p.m. ET in the opener of a 2020 Champions Classic doubleheader, with a matchup between Kansas and Kentucky to follow. Both teams are unbeaten to this point in 2020, though Duke has only played one game, beating Coppin State 81-71. Michigan State owns victories over Eastern Michigan and Notre Dame, though this is a substantial uptick in competition level.
William Hill Sportsbook lists the Blue Devils as three-point favorites, down half a point from the opening Duke vs. Michigan State odds. The over-under for total points is set at 149.5, down from opening at 152. Before locking in any Michigan State vs. Duke picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It's also off to a fast start in the 2020-21 season, going 4-1 on its top-rated picks and returning over $300. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Michigan State in the Champions Classic 2020. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Michigan State vs. Duke:
- Duke vs. Michigan State spread: Duke -3
- Duke vs. Michigan State over-under: 149.5 points
- Duke vs. Michigan State money line: Duke -160, Michigan State +140
- DUKE: The Blue Devils are 6-6 against the spread in the last 12 non-conference games
- MSU: The Spartans are 4-7 against the spread in the last 11 road games
Why Duke can cover
Duke is a talented team led in part by a pair of freshmen in DJ Steward and Jalen Johnson. Steward led the team with 24 points, including 4-9 from 3-point range, in the opener, and he added nine rebounds. Johnson narrowly missed a 20-20 game with 19 points, 19 rebounds, five assists and four blocked shots. Sophomores Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore were both top-five scorers on last season's Duke team, and both reached double-digits in scoring against Coppin State.
Duke is excellent on the offensive glass, using its length and athleticism to grab more than 42 percent of available missed shots against Coppin State. The Blue Devils also project to be quite efficient as a shooting team, hitting 52.5 percent of their 2-point shots last year and 67.6 percent in the season opener. Finally, Duke's physical talent allows for impressive rim protection, with the Blue Devils blocking 20 percent of Coppin State's shot attempts.
Why Michigan State can cover
Michigan State is a well-rounded, well-coached team, but the Spartans also have some standout performers. Marquette transfer Joey Hauser is averaging 12.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game, shooting 50 percent from the field and providing immediate returns since his arrival in East Lansing. NBA Draft hopeful Aaron Henry is also starring across the board, averaging 10 points, six rebounds, five assists, 2.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per game to go along with strong wing defense.
Finally, senior Joshua Langford is back from a foot injury that cost him the entire 2019-20 season, and he provides skill and experience on the wing. Izzo is still experimenting with his rotations, but Michigan State has offensive punch, defensive aptitude and experience to fall back on in this difficult road environment.
How to make Duke vs. Michigan State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with six different players hitting double-digits in the simulations. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Michigan State vs. Duke? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Duke vs. Michigan State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $2,600 on its top-rated college basketball spread picks over the past four-plus years, and find out.