Duke vs. Michigan State odds, spread: 2019 ACC vs. Big Ten Challenge picks, predictions from advanced model

The No. 11 Michigan State Spartans will look to reverse their ACC/Big Ten Challenge fortunes when they host the No. 10 Duke Blue Devils on Tuesday. The Spartans (5-2) are 8-11 in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge and have lost five of their past seven appearances, while the Blue Devils (7-1) are 18-2 in the Challenge, including 5-2 on the road. The game from the Breslin Center in East Lansing will start at 9:30 p.m. ET, and this is Duke's first visit since 2003. The Spartans are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Duke vs. Michigan State odds, up a half-point from the opener, while the over-under is 144. Before laying any Michigan State vs. Duke picks of your own, you should see the latest 2019 ACC/Big Ten Challenge predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Michigan State. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and it's also generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Duke vs. Michigan State:

  • Duke vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan State -6.5
  • Duke vs. Michigan State over-under: 144 points
  • Duke vs. Michigan State money line: Duke +230, Michigan State -290
  • DUKE: Won seven in a row in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge
  • MSU: Averaging 80.9 points per game

The model knows one of Michigan State's strongest traits is its ability to share the ball. That has been especially true this season, as the Spartans lead the Big Ten and rank seventh nationally with 18.4 assists per game. Last year, Michigan State led the nation in total assists with 715, second-most in school history. The Spartans recorded an assist on 66.8 percent of their field goals last season.

Junior forward Xavier Tillman is having another solid season and is second on the team at 12.3 points per game. He's also fourth in the Big Ten with 10 rebounds per game. Sophomore forward Aaron Henry is third on the team at 12.2 points per game, while adding 2.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists.

But just because the Spartans are tough at home does not guarantee they will cover the Michigan State vs. Duke spread on Tuesday. 

The Blue Devils are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games following three or more consecutive home games. The teams are meeting for the fifth time in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, with Duke winning the first four times. The Blue Devils will be without freshman guard Cassius Stanley (leg), who will miss a month due to injury, but still have freshman center Vernon Carey Jr., who has been a force so far, averaging 18.4 points and 9.5 rebounds. 

So who wins Michigan State vs. Duke in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge 2019? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Duke vs. Michigan State spread to jump on Tuesday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $2,700 on its college basketball picks the last three years.

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