The Duke Blue Devils go for the regular-season split when they take on the host North Carolina Tar Heels in Atlantic Coast Conference action on Saturday. The Blue Devils (11-10, 9-8), who are 3-5 on the road, are coming off an 81-77 loss at Georgia Tech on Tuesday. The Tar Heels (15-9, 9-6), meanwhile, are 9-1 at home this season. North Carolina, which beat Duke 91-87 on Feb. 6, dropped a 72-70 decision at Syracuse on Monday.
The game from the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C., is scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET. Duke is averaging 76 points per game, while North Carolina averages 74.2. The Tar Heels are three-point favorites in the latest Duke vs. North Carolina odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 150.5. Before finalizing any North Carolina vs. Duke picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned over $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Duke vs. North Carolina spread: North Carolina -3
- Duke vs. North Carolina over-under: 150.5 points
- Duke vs. North Carolina money line: North Carolina -150; Duke +130
- DU: Sophomore forward Matthew Hurt has scored 20 or more points in four of the last six games and has averaged 22 over that stretch
- UNC: Roy Williams is 95-33 (.742) in March as head coach of the Tar Heels
Why North Carolina can cover
Freshman guard Caleb Love has had a stellar first season with the Tar Heels. He is averaging 10.1 points, 3.6 assists, 2.6 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. Love was dominant in the first game against Duke, pouring in a career-high 25 points, while dishing out seven assists. For the season, Love has scored in double figures in 12 games, including the past two games. On Monday at Syracuse, Love scored 10 points and grabbed a season-high eight rebounds.
Also helping power the North Carolina offense is freshman forward/center Day'Ron Sharpe, who leads the country in offensive rebound percentage at .189 and the ACC in offensive rebounds with 3.5 per game. Sharpe leads the team in rebounding (8.0) and blocks (20), is third in steals (21) and fourth in scoring (9.8). He has led North Carolina in scoring in four games, including 25 against Notre Dame and 21 vs. Louisville. Sharpe has scored in double figures 10 times and has grabbed 10 or more rebounds five times.
Why Duke can cover
Hurt has been one of the bright spots for the Blue Devils in a down season. He leads the team in scoring at 18.9 points per game and in rebounding (6.2). Hurt had a monster game last Saturday against Louisville, scoring 37 points on 15 of 21 shooting, his first 30-point game and the most by a Blue Devil since Grayson Allen scored 37 against Michigan State in the 2017 Champions Classic. Over the last six games, Hurt is 49 of 72 (68.1 percent) from the field and 19 of 32 (59.4 percent) from 3-point range.
Freshman guard DJ Steward is having a solid start to his career, averaging 12.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 steals per game. He is connecting on 82 percent of his free throws. Steward has also hit at least one 3-pointer in 18 consecutive games, and has scored in double figures 15 times this season, including in 14 of the last 18 games. In the win at Wake Forest, he posted a 16-point, seven-rebound, three-assist and two-steal effort in just 30 minutes of action.
How to make UNC vs. Duke picks
The model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 145 points. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 60 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins UNC vs. Duke? And which side of the spread hits more than 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.