The No. 2 Duke Blue Devils and No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers are battling for both ACC and NCAA Tournament positioning. Their paths collide for the second time this year as Virginia hosts Duke at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday evening in a must-see battle. After the line opened with the Cavaliers listed as 2-point favorites, they are now at -1.5 in the latest Duke vs. Virginia odds. The Over-Under is up a point to 136. The Blue Devils narrowly got the upper-hand earlier in the season, but with the scene shifting to John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, it'll be a huge challenge for Duke to replicate that performance against an elite UVA defense. Before making any Duke vs. Virginia picks of your own, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions for this possible Final Four preview from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. During the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned more than $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 14 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 90-58 run on top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Duke vs. Virginia 10,000 times. We can tell you it's backing the Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations, indicating the line is way off on this one. You can see that pick only at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that this is perhaps one of Coach K's most loaded rosters in his legendary run at Duke. Zion Williamson (22 ppg) and R.J. Barrett (23) grab most of the headlines as they record huge dunks and pile up big numbers on a nightly basis. Many pundits believe they'll go No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2019 NBA Draft.
But there's five-star talent at other spots as well with Cam Reddish, another top-tier NBA prospect, in the mix. Point guard Tre Jones, who missed the first game of the season against Virginia with a shoulder injury, leads the team in assists with 5.5 per contest. With an offense that averages almost 90 points per game and a defense that holds opponents in the mid-60s on average, Duke is a very legitimate national title contender this season.
But if anybody can shut this Duke attack down, it might be the Cavaliers, and that's why they have a great chance to cover the Duke vs. Virginia spread on Saturday.
The Cavaliers fell by only two points at Cameron Indoor Stadium earlier this season, and they're looking to avenge that loss in the confines of John Paul Jones Arena on Saturday. To do that, they'll need to continue their defensive dominance.
Coach Tony Bennett, yet again, has the Cavaliers No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense (52.9 points per game). And while they regularly hold even the toughest opponents in the 50s and 60s, they're scoring an average of 72.9 points themselves, aided by 14.7 ppg from De'Andre Hunter and 14.5 ppg from Kyle Guy. Those two give Virginia enough firepower to get the cover on Saturday, even if point guard Ty Jerome (back) needs to sit this game out or is less than 100 percent.
Who wins Duke vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread cashes in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Duke vs. Virginia spread you should be all over Saturday, all from the model that has returned more than $5,000 to $100 players the last two years.
