Duke vs. Virginia odds, line: College basketball picks, predictions from unbiased model on 22-8 roll

After suffering a loss earlier this week at home against Syracuse, No. 1 Duke will be challenged on Saturday by No. 4 Virginia at Cameron Indoor Stadium. It's a classic matchup between an experienced, stylistically-challenging Virginia squad and a young, absurdly-talented Duke squad. Despite the loss, the Blue Devils are favored by 3.5 points, up 1.5 from the opening line, and the total is at 136 in the latest Duke vs. Virginia odds. Still, the Cavaliers are undefeated and could stake a two-game lead over likely their biggest challengers for the ACC regular season title with a win. So before you make your Duke vs. Virginia picks, be sure to check out the latest college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. And it enters Week 11 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a strong 22-8 run on all of its top-rated picks. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model takes aim at this ACC matchup. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also has a strong against the spread pick, saying one side hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

The model knows that Duke and Virginia are the only two teams in the nation that rank in the top five in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. However, the glaring difference between these dominant teams is the pace at which each conducts its business.

The Blue Devils are eighth in the nation in adjusted tempo, while the Cavaliers rank 353rd in that category. Because of that, Duke knows it won't get as many opportunities to get out onto the break as it'd prefer, but when the Blue Devils do get those chances, they'll have to make the most of them.

The good news is that after losing Zion Williamson (eye) for the second half against FSU and not having Cam Reddish (illness) available against Syracuse, the Blue Devils should be healthier on Saturday. Williamson played 44 minutes against Syracuse last time out, while Reddish appears likely to return on Saturday.

But just because the Blue Devils are getting healthy doesn't mean they'll cover the Duke vs. Virginia spread.

The model also knows Virginia assists on over 57 percent of their made field goals, while their opponents only assist on just over 42 percent. That's because their focus is on shot quality on offense and moving defenses, which allow them to get high-quality looks. On the other side of the ball, Virginia guards the three-point line hard and forces opponents to settle for mid-range jumpers. 

Virginia is an eye-popping 13-3 against the spread this season, compared to 10-6 for Duke. The Cavaliers are also 6-1 against the number on the road and 9-2 on more than four days' rest. Virginia has covered seven straight, dating back to a 17-point win at South Carolina.

Who wins Duke vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread hits in well over half of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model that has returned more than $5,200 to $100 players the last two years.

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