Florida State is looking to rebound from a difficult loss when the seventh-ranked Seminoles head to South Bend to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Wednesday night. The Seminoles (24-5) had won four in a row, including a big home victory against then No. 11 Louisville, but they suffered a letdown in a 70-69 loss at Clemson on Saturday. Notre Dame (18-11) was on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament bid after a three-game win streak, however the Fighting Irish lost 84-73 to Wake Forest on Saturday and likely need to win the conference tournament to snag a spot.
Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET at the Joyce Center. The Seminoles are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Florida State vs. Notre Dame odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 147. Before considering your Notre Dame vs. Florida State picks or college basketball predictions, see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 17 of the 2019-20 season on a 66-40 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.
- Florida State vs. Notre Dame spread: Seminoles -1.5
- Florida State vs. Notre Dame over-under: 147
- Florida State vs. Notre Dame money line: Seminoles -126, Fighting Irish +105
- FSU: G Devin Vassell has hit 19 of 38 three-pointers over the past 10 games.
- ND: F John Mooney has 24 double-doubles in 29 games this season.
Why Florida State can cover
Florida State is 3-1 against the spread after a loss this season, and guards Trent Forrest and Devin Vassell share most of the load. The sophomore Vassell is the top scorer at 12.9 and leads FSU in rebounds with 5.2, while the senior Forrest scores 11.7 points and gets a team-high 4.1 assists. Vassell has hit 42.6 percent from three-point range on 101 attempts. Junior M.J. Walker averages 10.4 points and has hit 35.1 percent on a team-high 111 tries from long range.
The Seminoles are 8-6 against the spread on the road, and they are second in the ACC in scoring at 75.3 points per game. They also rank second in field-goal percentage at 45.9. Athletic sophomores Malik Osborne and RaiQuan Gray and freshman Patrick Williams rotate at forward. Williams scores 9.4 points and blocks a shot per game, while Gray and Osborne combine for 12.2 points and 9.8 rebounds.
Why Notre Dame can cover
Even so, the Seminoles aren't guaranteed to cover the Notre Dame vs. Florida State spread on Wednesday. Notre Dame is 8-7-2 against the spread at home this season, and the team revolves around forward John Mooney. The senior is a near-automatic double-double, scoring 16.8 points and ranking second in the nation at 12.8 rebounds. Senior guard Rex Pflueger is usually in the starting lineup for his leadership, and he does whatever is required, getting a team-high 1.4 steals and averaging 3.6 assists and 3.4 rebounds.
The Fighting Irish are 14-13-2 against the spread this season, and they have a strong guard tandem in senior T.J. Gibbs, who scores 13.2 points and adds 3.2 assists, and sophomore Prentiss Hubb, who scores 11.8 and gets a team-high 4.9 assists. The Fighting Irish get 16.6 assists per game, which ranks 10th in the nation, and they lead the nation both in fewest turnovers (9.5) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.74).
How to make Florida State vs. Notre Dame picks
We can tell you that the model is leaning under, with simulations showing just one FSU player scoring in double figures and Mooney falling short of his double-double. The model also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Notre Dame vs. Florida State? And which side of the spread is hitting nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida State vs. Notre Dame spread to jump on Wednesday, all from the advanced model that has returned $2,770 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.