The No. 23 Florida Gators will try to begin a season better than any Gators team has in almost a decade when they host the Troy Trojans on Sunday at the O'Connell Center in Gainesville, Fla. After knocking off Ohio State on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer on Wednesday, the Gators are 5-0 for the third time in six seasons (2016 and 2017). With a win over Troy, they will improve to 6-0 for the first time since the 2012-13 team began the season 7-0. Meanwhile, the Trojans (4-2) are looking to go 5-2 for the first time since the 2003-04 season.
Tip-off is set for noon ET. The Gators are favored by 21.5 points in the latest Troy vs. Florida odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 134.5. Before making any Florida vs. Troy picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Florida vs. Troy spread: Gators -21.5
- Florida vs. Troy over/under: 134.5 points
- FLA: The Gators rank 14th in the country in blocked shots per game (6.2)
- TROY: The Trojans force opponents into 20.6 turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the country
Why Florida can cover
Florida has turned up the pressure defense recently. In each of the last two games, against California and Ohio State, the Gators forced 18 turnovers. In the game against the Bears, Florida turned those turnovers into 19 points. Against the Buckeyes, the Gators converted the turnovers into 22 points.
In addition, Florida figures to have a huge edge on the boards. Led by Colin Castleton (10.4 rebounds per game), the Gators outrebound opponents by 6.2 rebounds a game. Meanwhile Troy is getting outrebounded by 2.8 rebounds a game.
Why Troy can cover
Troy plays a high-pressure style of defense that has been successful disrupting opponents this season. The Trojans force opponents into 20.6 turnovers per game, which leads the Sun Belt Conference and ranks fifth in the country. They also make 11.4 steals a game, which leads the conference and is 11th in the nation. The high-pressure defense has helped Troy to a +6.6 turnover margin per game, which is 14th in Division I.
In addition, freshman Duke Deen has been a revelation so far this season. A 5-foot-8 guard from Shreveport, La., Deen leads the team and ranks ninth in the Sun Belt in scoring (13.3 points per game). He also leads the Trojans in 3-pointers (11), assists (26) and steals (nine).
How to make Florida vs. Troy picks
We can tell you that the model is leaning Over the total, and it also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 60 percent of simulations. You can get the pick only at SportsLine.
So who wins Troy vs. Florida? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida vs. Troy spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned almost $2,100 on its college basketball picks the last five-plus years, and find out.