Iowa State vs. Baylor odds, line: 2019 Big 12 Tournament picks, best predictions from model on 11-5 roll

At the moment, the Iowa State Cyclones and Baylor Bears have to feel optimistic about their 2019 NCAA Tournament chances, with CBS Sports bracketology guru Jerry Palm giving both comfortable at-large bids in his latest update. However, with another Quadrant-I win on the line as the two sides meet in the 2019 Big 12 Tournament on Thursday at 12:30 p.m. ET, you can expect the action to be extremely intense. Both teams have nearly identical straight up records (19-12 vs. 20-13) and have covered 16 times. The Cyclones are three-point favorites, with the over-under listed at 143.5 in the latest Iowa State vs. Baylor odds. But before you make your Iowa State vs. Baylor picks, be sure to see the 2019 Big 12 Tournament predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered conference championship week on a strong 11-5 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in on Iowa State vs. Baylor. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it also has a strong against the spread pick that hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

Entering Thursday's Big 12 Tournament game, the model knows that Iowa State's primary area of concern will be its defense. The Cyclones have struggled immensely down the stretch, allowing opponents to get high-quality looks from beyond the arc with regularity. During its current three-game losing streak, Iowa State is allowing 47.4 percent shooting from behind the three-point line and has let opponents hit 37 shots from deep while losing by an average of 13.3 points.

Even with the top scoring offense in Big 12 play this season (73.3 points per game), Iowa State will struggle to outscore any team if it's allowing opponents that many wide-open looks from the three-point line.

However, the Cyclones aren't the only team struggling on their way into this matchup. The Bears will also have their work cut out for them to cover the Iowa State vs. Baylor spread in the 2019 Big 12 Tournament.

Despite the fact that Baylor finished 213th in the nation in three-point shooting by hitting 33.9 percent of its attempts, the Bears benefited from 37.3 percent shooting during Big 12 play. That was the best mark in the league and recent performances suggest they're regressing to their mean when it comes to outside shooting. 

Still, Baylor shot just 23.6 percent from beyond the arc in its last two losses at home against Oklahoma State and on the road against Kansas. In particular, King McClure, who had been one of Baylor's most prolific three-point shooters, is just 1-for-13 in his last two games. Its point differential of 5.2 is also smaller than Baylor's 8.9.

So who wins Baylor vs. Iowa State? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Baylor vs. Iowa state spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $4,000 on its college basketball picks, and find out.

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