The No. 14 seed Montana State Bobcats aim to pull a first round upset on Friday evening. Montana State is 25-9 overall this season, and the Bobcats will face the No. 3 seed Kansas State Wildcats in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Montana State is red-hot, winning 13 of the last 14 games on the way to the Big Sky Conference title. Kansas State is 23-9 overall, including wins over Kansas and Texas, and is led by first-year coach Jerome Tang.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:40 p.m ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Kansas State as an 8.5-point favorite and the over/under is 139.5 in the latest Montana State vs. Kansas State odds. Before locking in any Kansas State vs. Montana State picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Kansas State vs. Montana State and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Montana State vs. Kansas State:

  • Montana State vs. Kansas State spread: KSU -8.5
  • Montana State vs. Kansas State over/under: 139.5 points
  • Montana State vs. Kansas State money line: KSU -360, MSU +280
  • Montana State: The Bobcats are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • Kansas State: The Wildcats are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • Montana State vs. Kansas State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Montana State can cover

Montana State's offense stands out in specific traits. The Bobcats are in the top five of the country in free throw creation rate, leading to the No. 2 national mark with 17.8 free throws made per contest. Montana State also has only 5.5% of shots blocked, a top-tier mark, and the Bobcats make 52.4% of 2-point attempts. Montana State is strong in ball security with a 17.6% turnover rate, and the Bobcats have pathways to exploit a Kansas State defense that is strongly below the national average in defensive rebound rate (70.8%) and free throw prevention (21.0 attempts allowed per game). 

On defense, Montana State is allowing only 8.9 assists per game, one of the best marks in the nation, and opponents are shooting only 48% from 2-point range. The Bobcats create a turnover on 20.1% of defensive possessions, while Kansas State commits a giveaway on 20.0% of offensive trips. Kansas State also has a 10.4% live-ball turnover rate that Montana State can benefit from, and the Bobcats secure nearly 75% of available rebounds on the defensive glass.

Why Kansas State can cover 

Kansas State is the more talented team in this matchup, and Jerome Tang's club excels on defense. The Wildcats are in the top 20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Kansas State has excellent opponent shooting metrics with 30.1% allowed on 3-point attempts and 48.8% allowed on 2-point attempts. Kansas State also keeps pressure on opponents with havoc creation, including a 20.7% turnover creation rate and a 10.7% steal rate. Montana State shoots only 32.0% from 3-point distance and secures fewer than 26% of available offensive rebounds this season. 

On the other end, Kansas State is keyed by All-Big 12 selections in Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, and the Wildcats average almost 17 assists per game. Kansas State is very strong on the offensive glass, grabbing 31.1% of missed shots, and the Wildcats are excellent in both volume (21.3 attempts per game) and accuracy (75.0%) at the free throw line.

How to make Montana State vs. Kansas State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 143 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Kansas State vs. Montana State? And which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.