Kansas will roll vs. Oklahoma State | Keep riding the Bulls over with their defense in shambles

Also, Davidson and Duquesne should light up the scoreboard in the A-10

By Tom Fornelli

Feb 14, 2022 at 4:14 pm ET • 5 min read

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Happy Valentine's Day, dear reader! I've long been a proponent of the idea that the day after the Super Bowl should be a national holiday so we can all take the day off work. It is a cruel twist of fate to have today be a holiday, but not the type we get to skip work for.

We'll have to make up for it by doing even less work on the first Thursday and Friday of March Madness this season.

I hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl -- you did if you followed the bets I shared for the game here -- and I hope you're not too depressed about football season being over. If you are, don't worry. There will be yet another spring football league coming your way before you know it, and you can spend a couple of hours of that first week pretending you enjoy it before going back to your everyday life. If that's not comforting, just know that, football or not, this newsletter will be here for you every day with picks for other sports and great stories to read like these.

Now let's hope I'm as accurate with these picks as Cupid is with his arrows.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Oklahoma State at No. 8 Kansas, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Kansas -10.5 (-110): There's only one college basketball game featuring a ranked team tonight, and this is it. Unfortunately for the casual observer, I do not expect it to be close, even if Oklahoma State's 12-12 record is misleading. The Cowboys are a much better team than their record suggests, but they suffer from playing in the best league in the country. That said, while the Cowboys would have a better record in any other league, it doesn't mean they're an elite team.

They have a tough time scoring, which happens when you cannot shoot. It's a pretty fundamental part of the game! The Cowboys rank 236th in eFG%, 326th in three-point percentage, and 312th at the charity stripe. Instead, they rely on a defense ranked 14th by KenPom, but that defense wasn't of much benefit in the first meeting against Kansas. That was a 74-63 Jayhawks in Stillwater back at the beginning of January. Kansas wasn't spectacular that night -- in fact, it was a subpar performance -- but Oklahoma State's complete inability to put the orange ball through the orange cylinder killed it.

I don't anticipate Oklahoma State's defense to be as effective in Allen Fieldhouse because most aren't. The Jayhawks' superior offense and solid defense should be enough to keep the Cowboys at arm's length for most of the night. I have some fears about Kansas' free-throw shooting (it ranks 208th nationally at 70.3%), but Kansas has such a massive advantage on the offensive glass that it probably won't be a factor. Plus, Oklahoma State can get foul happy, so the overall volume of Kansas free throws should help overcome the misses.

Key Trend: The favorite has covered seven of the last nine meetings.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine Projection Model is on the same side of the spread as I am, but it doesn't love much of anything in tonight's matchup.

💰The Picks

Demar Derozan Chicago Bulls — Getty Images

🏀 NBA

Spurs at Bulls, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA TV
The Pick: Over 234 (-110) -- You thought we were done betting Bulls over? I know we lost on Thursday, but the principle lives on. The Bulls defense has been just as awful, but they had a couple of poor offensive evenings. That shouldn't be the case tonight against a Spurs defense that ranks 18th in the NBA in defensive rating and is now featuring a bunch of new faces who aren't familiar with one another yet. That will lead to mistakes and miscommunication, which will lead to points.

Now, you could argue that San Antonio will suffer from the same problems offensively and that it could lead to a bad performance. It's a valid point, but I counter by asking you if you've seen the Bulls defense lately? You don't have to play well to put up 115 points on it these days. Understanding the basic rules of basketball is all that's required of you at the moment.

Key Trend: The over is 8-2 in the Bulls last 10 games.

🏀 College Basketball

Duquesne at Davidson, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: Over 135.5 (-110) -- Don't look at me like you're too good to be watching A-10 basketball on a streaming service. You're reading this newsletter on Valentine's Day. If you had plans, you'd be living them. Instead, you'll be at home sweating two teams you know little to nothing about, but don't worry, I know enough about them to tell you this total is too low. Now, there are reasons for this. Neither one of these teams moves quickly. According to KenPom's adjusted tempo, Davidson ranks 323rd nationally while Duquesne is 283rd. But don't worry, Duquesne makes up for moving slowly on offense by adding in the ability not to score at the end. Seriously, the Dukes rank 322nd nationally in eFG% and 239th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They've lost nine straight entering this game.

But we're taking the over because Davidson is the best team in the Atlantic 10, but it didn't get there by defending. It got there by being ruthlessly efficient on offense. Davidson's offense ranks 10th nationally in adjusted efficiency, and this is a team that doesn't just take a lot of threes but hits them at a 38.3% clip (12th nationally). On the other end of the court, the Wildcats rank 224th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. So, they move slowly on offense but then try to get the ball back quickly by not defending. It's an odd lifestyle that suits the team well. My prediction is Davidson builds a huge lead and cruises toward the finish line, allowing Duquesne to make the final score look more respectable and help us get to about 140 points or so.

Key Trend: The over is 4-1 in Davidson's last five games as a favorite.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine's Alex Selesnick is an absolute beast when it comes to NBA prop bets, and he's published his favorite NBA props for Monday night.

⚽ Champions League Picks

Karim Benzema Real Madrid — Getty Images

The Champions League knockout stages begin Tuesday afternoon on CBS and Paramount+, and I want to make sure you have my picks for all four of this week's matches. If you want a full explanation of each pick, you can read them here. If you just want to take my word for it, the picks are below.