It took until the calendar hit June, but we now have every top-100 prospect off the board. On Saturday, the lone remaining five-star in the high school class of 2017 finally committed. His name is Brian Bowen and he's going to play at Louisville next season. (An outcome basically no one predicted less than two weeks ago.)
On Monday, the final domino fell when four-star point guard Tremont Waters, who was originally committed to Gorgetown, flipped to LSU. With the final two pieces locking into place, we can now evaluate the cream of the recruiting crop this year.
Specifically, the top two. You know who I'm talking about.
For the fourth consecutive recruiting cycle John Calipari and Mike Krzyzewski have found themselves ahead of all other alleged competitors. Kentucky and Duke are once again boasting the top two recruiting classes in college hoops. This isn't a flash of news, but there's no real firm event to announce it, either. So, might as well do that here and now.
Every year five- and four-star recruits commit any time between November and the late spring, and as the process sorts itself out, there are Duke and Kentucky -- inevitably. Two powerhouses that wind up with a higher concentration of elite high school players than 349 other Division I programs. This is more than the new normal: it's the expected endgame. If you're not a fan of either team, you might think this is boring. If you think bluebloods finishing side by side gets old, that's fair.
But the reality is Duke and Kentucky winning in April and May, July and August, it means more interesting storylines during the season. That's the win for college hoops. You hate? That's still a win. Because you're invested one way or another. With one-and-done types filtering into Durham and Lexington, higher expectations follow. When losses happen during the season, it enables schadenfreude from outside tribes. Recruiting wins in the spring translate to stories in November and December, then culmination of those plot points come March, maybe even April.
So while it might make for boilerplate (and frustrating) offseason developments for most other fans in power conferences, college basketball is bettered by having its two most hated programs continue to be disliked for outperforming every other team in recruiting.
The Duke-Kentucky dynamic isn't new, but with four straight years of 1-and-2 finishes, we've officially hit an era of unmatched dominance from the same two programs. The two most famous coaches, the two biggest teams in college hoops, are operating at an unprecedented co-existing level. With Kentucky this is not new, of course. It's been an inevitability since Calipari's first recruiting class at UK that he would hold the throne. It started in '09 with John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. Every UK class since Cal took over has been first or second in the country. Calipari has proven himself to be the greatest recruiter in college basketball history.
The twist in this story is Krzyzewski's adaptation. He rebuffed the idea of recruiting one-and-dones in the aughts, but that's long gone. The Blue Devils have been top-two the past four years and five of the past eight. Offseason recruiting rivalries are much more common to college football than hoops, but Duke and Kentucky have given college basketball a twinge of the football frenzy.
The Blue Devils and Wildcats are, separately, part of the two best rivalries on the court (Duke vs. North Carolina and Kentucky vs. Louisville). Now, their offseason, off-court competition is nearly as captivating. Really, Duke vs. Kentucky on the trail has become the third best rivalry in college basketball.
It's made better by the fact that Krzyzewski and Calipari are so different. There is a fierce competition hiding behind a sheen of professional respect. Calipari has taken upon himself, multiple times, to obliquely critique K before. For as long as these two are running their empires, the chess game cannot end.
Here's the wrinkle. It seems like the rest of college basketball is playing for third in recruiting. In reality, it's fourth. Because Duke and Kentucky's recruiting prowess isn't a planet apart from every other program. When discussing national recruiting in college basketball, there are two dynamics in play: 1) Calipari vs. K, 2) Sean Miller coming to join them.
Miller's consistency at Arizona doesn't get nearly as much run. That's probably because Miller isn't as outspoken as Calipari or nearly as established and legendary as Krzyzewski. You can't really have a three-program rivalry, but one of the most undiscussed revelations in college basketball over the past four or five years has been Miller's consistent ability to win out -- and beat Kentucky and Duke for prospects.
Now, we might be hitting the turning point. This could be Arizona's chance to make it a widely acknowledged three-horse race in the coming years. Miller has -- in our estimation -- the No. 1 team in the country heading into next season. Meanwhile, Duke and Kentucky will be very talented but dealing with humongous personnel turnover. Miller has some, too, but by far the most returning production. As for newcomers, on Arizona's roster is DeAndre Ayton, who ranks as the best recruit since 2003 to commit to Arizona. While Kentucky and Duke have taken up a majority of national recruiting headlines since 2013, here's what the 247 composite shows.
- 2017: No. 1 Kentucky, No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Arizona
- 2016: No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Kentucky, No. 3 Michigan State (Arizona was No. 6)
- 2015: No. 1 Kentucky, No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Arizona
- 2014: No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Kentucky, No. 3 Arizona
In 2011, Kentucky was No. 1, Duke No. 2, Arizona No. 4. Duke and Kentucky might be separated from the rest of the sport, but Arizona's practically within reaching distance.
And sure, landing elite recruiting classes doesn't ensure success, but obviously it makes it a lot easier. And until the NBA rule changes -- even if/when the NBA opts to use a different model, whenever that may come -- it's not as if these coaches will slow. They will still be luring in the top college talent.
It's a great time for recruiting in college basketball because we have reliable dominance at the top sprinkled with unpredictable victories elsewhere. On the whole, if you think college basketball has never been more predictable in recruiting, you'd be wrong. As my friend Gary Parrish writes in that column, there are a number of non-traditional programs landing good prospects and/or classes now.
Duke, Kentucky and Arizona are lording over their leagues (the three schools have combined for nearly 50 five-star recruits in the past five seasons; that's unreal) and outpacing most others. College basketball has sorted itself out to the best possible situation. Three power programs in three different regions, with three coaches from different generations, nabbing top talent. But this is happening while schools like Miami, Western Kentucky, Alabama, UNLV, Providence and Ole Miss are finishing in the top 20.
Arizona's emergence, combined with Miller's coaching acumen, means he's deserving of sitting at the table with Calipari and K. Miller doesn't have a national title yet, not even a Final Four appearance, but with the Wildcats building top-three recruiting classes nearly annually, reaching the sport's biggest stage is unpreventable. I think that lack of a Final Four is the only thing stopping Miller from definitively making the recruiting elite a class of three.
