NCAA and SEC Tournament positioning is on the line Saturday when Alabama travels to Kentucky for a 2 p.m. ET matchup on CBS. Kentucky is favored by 4.5 points, up one from the opening line.

In such a huge conference battle that will have an impact on both teams' postseason hopes, you need to see what Vegas legend Micah Roberts has to say.

Roberts has worked in the Las Vegas sportsbook industry for 20 years, including a 13-year run as Station Casinos' book director. He's heating up on his college basketball picks as March approaches, entering the weekend on a sizzling 13-6 run.

Anybody who has been following picks is up huge right now.

Now, Roberts has studied every angle of Saturday's matchup and locked in a strong point-spread pick. He's sharing it only at SportsLine.

Roberts knows that Kentucky has been one of the biggest disappointments in the SEC this season. The talented, though wildly inconsistent Wildcats have dropped four in a row and now sit at just 17-9 overall and 6-7 in SEC play. They need to play well down the stretch just to make the NCAA Tournament.

Normally one of the top-scoring teams in the nation, Kentucky hasn't had that same high-flying offensive attack this season. The Wildcats are outside of the top 100 nationally in scoring offense and have averaged just 65.3 points during their current losing streak.

But just because the Wildcats have struggled doesn't mean that the Crimson Tide will be able to go on the road and either win or keep this game within the spread.

Alabama has been streaky on the road this season. The Tide dominated at Florida by 18 points on Feb. 3, but lost to Ole Miss, one of the SEC's worst squads, by 12 on the road the week before that.

And despite the presence of freshman guard Collin Sexton, who averages 18.3 points, Alabama's offense struggles with consistency. It comes into Saturday's game with an offense that is barely inside the top-200 nationally in scoring with 73.5 points. The Tide might need more than that to cover on Saturday, especially if Kentucky can regain its shooting touch at home.

Roberts has evaluated all these circumstances and identified an alarming stat that made him jump all over one of these sides. He's sharing that pick over at SportsLine.

So what side do you need to be all over in Alabama vs. Kentucky? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of Alabama-Kentucky you should back, and what alarming stat determines the outcome, all from a Vegas bookmaker on a blistering 13-6 run on his college basketball picks.