Kentucky vs. Auburn odds, line: College basketball picks, predictions from proven model on 22-8 run
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated Saturday's Kentucky vs. Auburn game 10,000 times.
In a monster SEC showdown, the No. 14 Auburn Tigers will host the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday afternoon at Auburn Arena. Both teams have already suffered a loss in conference play, and a win is critical for both sides as they look to keep pace with Tennessee, Ole Miss and South Carolina in the SEC. As the home team, and having won by 10 in their own arena last season, the Tigers are 4.5-point favorites with the total at 147.5 in the latest Kentucky vs. Auburn odds. However, you can always expect excitement when Bruce Pearl and John Calipari match wits. So be sure to check out the Kentucky vs. Auburn picks and college basketball predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine before locking in your own selections.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks.
And it enters Week 11 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a strong 22-8 run on all of its top-rated picks. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model takes aim at this SEC matchup. We can tell you it has a lean to the over, and it also has a strong pick against the spread, saying one side hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You absolutely need to see it before you lock in your own picks.
For Kentucky, the model knows that the Wildcats will have to impose their will stylistically in a clash between two offenses with dramatically different philosophies. The Wildcats use their NBA-caliber talent and length to attack the rim aggressively. Over 77 percent of their offense comes from either the free-throw line or inside the arc. Because of that, they rank 138th in the nation in average offensive possessions.
Against an Auburn squad that ranks 38th in average offensive possession length, Kentucky is going to want to attack the paint area and make a living at the free-throw line to slow things down. In an ideal world, they can capitalize on their superior depth that way by putting Auburn in foul trouble.
However, the Tigers have the home-court advantage and won't make it easy for the Wildcats to cover the Kentucky vs. Auburn spread.
One of Auburn's strengths as a team, and an assuredly important part of the game plan against Kentucky, will be the aggressiveness of its defense.
The Tigers are No. 1 in the nation in percentage of defensive possessions that end in a turnover, and No. 1 in the nation in percentage of defensive possessions with a blocked shot. That's because they play the passing lanes aggressively (they're third in the nation with steals on 13.5 percent of defensive possessions) and they have three very solid rim protectors in Austin Wiley, Chuma Okeke and Anfernee McLemore.
Those three combine to block five shots per game even though Wiley and McLemore both play less than 20 minutes per night on average. Against a Kentucky team that gets over 77 percent of its scoring production inside the 3-point line or at the foul line, having those three at the rim presents a serious challenge for the Wildcats.
Who wins Auburn vs. Kentucky? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model that has returned more than $5,200 to $100 players the last two years, and find out.
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