LSU vs. UMBC odds, line, spread: 2019 college basketball picks, Nov. 19 predictions from top simulation

LSU faces another non-conference test after falling out of the top 25 when the Tigers host Maryland-Baltimore County on Tuesday night. The Tigers were ranked at No. 23 last week, but a two-point loss to VCU dropped them out of the poll despite a 10-point victory against Nicholls State on Saturday. They have plenty of young talent and are trying to find the right mix and cut down on mistakes. UMBC is 4-0 and is expected to be a contender in the America East Conference. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET at Pete Maravich Assembly Center.

The Tigers are 17-point favorites, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 144 in the latest LSU vs. UMBC odds. Before making any LSU vs. UMBC picks of your own, you need to see the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated against-the-spread picks the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players and consistently coming out ahead on college basketball odds. Anybody who has followed it has seen big returns. 

Now, the model has broken down UMBC vs. LSU. We can tell you it's leaning under, but the model also has generated a very strong against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You see it at SportsLine now. Here are the betting lines and trends for UMBC vs. LSU:

  • UMBC vs. LSU spread: Tigers -17
  • UMBC vs. LSU over-under: 144
  • UMBC vs. LSU money line: Tigers -2856, Retrievers +635
  • LSU: Skylar Mays is averaging 19.7 points.
  • UMBC: Darnell Rogers is 11-for-22 on three-pointers this season.

The model knows the Tigers are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games on Tuesdays, and guard Skylar Mays has been doing it all. The senior guard is averaging a team-high 19.7 points and 8.0 rebounds in 36.7 minutes per game. LSU has five players averaging more than 12 points.

The Tigers are still trying to build their depth as they battle injuries and get their talented young players in a rhythm. Guard Charles Manning is averaging 7.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocked shots. Darius Days has made 5-of-11 attempts from three-point range, and Javonte Smart leads the Tigers in assists at 4.3 per game. 

But just because the the Tigers have the young talent doesn't mean they will cover the LSU vs. UMBC spread on Tuesday. 

The Retrievers are 19-8 against the spread in their last 27 games following a straight-up win and Brandon Horvath and guard Darnell Rogers form a formidable duo. The 5-foot-3 Rogers, a JuCo transfer, leads UMBC with 16.0 points and 5.3 assists per game. Horvath chips in 12.5 points and pulls down 8.5 rebounds per game, while guards Ricky Council and L.J. Owens each average 13 points.

In a 60-48 victory against Division II Georgian Court on Saturday, the 6-foot-10 Horvath had 13 points and 12 rebounds, while Rogers had a career-high 23 points on 7-for-11 shooting. Seniors Arkel Lamar (6-foot-5) and Max Curran (6-9) made their season debuts in the game and should give UMBC a major boost. Lamar had nine rebounds, while Curran played seven minutes while working back from a hand injury.

So who wins UMBC vs. LSU? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the UMBC vs. LSU spread to back on Tuesday, all from the advanced model that has returned $2,770 on its top-rated college basketball picks.

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