The scores and results from the first two rounds of the 2022 NCAA Tournament have flipped the bracket on its head. We've got four double-digit seeds into the Sweet 16 for the second straight year, a No. 15 seed over a No. 2 seed for the second straight year and a Sweet 16 matchup between a No. 10 and a No. 11 seed that will guarantee at least one double-digit seed to make the Elite Eight.
These kinds of runs might not be as possible if the entire field was re-seeded, which is one of the reasons why I, personally, love the quirks of the bracket process as it stands. But what if the NCAA Tournament followed in the footsteps of other sports, tournaments and leagues with a re-seeding process to set up a more balanced bracket for the second weekend? We've taken a stab at that exact process below, providing both a glimpse of what the Sweet 16 might look like in the form of a power rankings, of sort, as we prepare for the action this coming weekend.
Re-seeding the Sweet 16
| 1 | 
Gonzaga
|
| Gonzaga fans have to be thrilled with the way the team responded to a stellar challenge from Memphis in the second round, and the four-point win over the upset-minded Tigers produced two great signs for the team's Final Four hopes. First, Drew Timme going into takeover mode against a high-level front line and imposing his will down low to the tune fo 25 points and 14 rebounds as Chet Holmgren dealt with foul trouble. It looked personal for Timme, who was buzzing with energy after the win, and that kind of grown-man, big-man play can go a long way in this tournament. The other observation was Gonzaga getting really solid play out of Andrew Nembhard and a backcourt that's often taken a back seat to the Zags' headlining bigs. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 1 | |
| 2 | 
Kansas
|
| All three of the No. 1 seeds left in the tournament escaped a No. 9 seed in the second round by single digits with Kansas' seven-point win against Creighton as the largest margin of the trio. Creighton was a 30.8% 3-point shooting team on the year, so when the Jays started raining it in from downtown (12-for-28 to finish the game), the statistical anomaly appeared to be setting up for another Big 12 No. 1 seed to fall. Remy Martin's emergence has become the X-factor in Kansas' title hopes, and his 20 points in the second round are part of the reason this team is still in the tournament. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 3 | |
| 3 | 
Arizona
|
| Very slight bump down for Arizona after the two wins against Wright State and TCU -- the latter absolutely coming with the feeling that the Wildcats escaped disaster late on Sunday night. But our downgrade (again, a slight one) also takes into consideration the 19 turnovers in Arizona's first-round win against the No. 16 seed. With 35 turnovers across both wins, there's a glaring concern heading into a Sweet 16 matchup against one of the toughest defensive teams in the tournament in Houston. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 2 | |
| 4 | 
Duke
|
| It's an upgrade for Duke coming out of the dramatic second-round win against Michigan State, which saw the Blue Devils rise the occasion on the defensive end of the floor when the possessions mattered the most down the stretch. The March losses to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, as well as the single-digit wins against Syracuse and Miami, have all included the inability to get stops as a reason for frustration. On Sunday, it was Duke's defense that rose to the occasion, if that can be bottled and repeated, it's one of the last pieces to the puzzle for Mike Krzyzewski's title-contending hopes. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 8 | |
| 5 | 
Villanova
|
| No major change to Villanova's position, as a 20-point win against No. 15 Delaware and a 10-point win against No. 7 Ohio State grade out close to "as expected" for Jay Wright and this edition of his reliable Villanova program. I mention "reliable" because it was the Wildcats' ability to out-execute Ohio State in the final five minutes that turned a toss-up game into a double-digit win. Though the Buckeyes threatened often, they never led. In a sport that's frequently chaotic in pressure situations, Villanova's 17-for-20 free-throw shooting kept things stress-free in Philadelphia. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 7 | |
| 6 | 
Purdue
|
| Matt Painter has to be happy not only with how the bracket has broken -- No. 1 seed Baylor and No. 2 seed Kentucky both eliminated, leaving the Boilermakers as the highest seed remaining in the East Region -- but how his team has performed in the two double-digit wins against No. 14 seed Yale and No. 6 seed Texas. While Yale never provided much of a threat, the win against Texas came with some sweat, and the Boilermakers needed two strong responses and got them -- first climbing back from an early deficit to establish a lead, then in the second half after that lead evaporated thanks to a Texas run. Purdue had wave after wave of shot-making ready to go when needed, and it's encouraging to see a team's greatest strength power tournament success. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 11 | |
| 7 | 
Houston
|
| This is arguably the biggest jump in the re-seeding exercise, though admittedly we're also correcting what has been viewed as an under-seeding of the regular season and tournament champs from the American Athletic Conference. Houston fell to the No. 5 seed line in part because it had only one Quadrant 1 victory on its profile, a stat that stood out in comparison to the top-five ratings across multiple computer metrics. Now Houston not only has two additional Quadrant 1 wins but even exceeded those computer expectations with two winning margins (14 points vs. No. 12 seed UAB, 15 points vs. No. 4 seed Illinois) that both covered the spread. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 18 | |
| 8 | 
Texas Tech
|
| After Houston, we get to a portion of the Sweet 16 field with a couple teams from the No. 3 seed or No. 4 seed lines that have imbalanced results, or at least inconsistent performances across their two wins. Texas Tech is the starkest example with an absolute annihilation of Montana State by 35 points in the first round and then a hard-fought-but-ugly six-point win against Notre Dame. The Red Raiders finished the game on a 10-1 run but also missed 10 of their final 11 shots, relying on defensive stops and free throws to escape with a win. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 12 | |
| 9 | 
UCLA
|
| UCLA experienced the flip side of Texas Tech's opening weekend, first getting an upset scare from Akron in the first round in the midst of a poor shooting performance from its stars Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez. Tyger Campbell and some defensive stops helped UCLA make it to the second round, where they greatly exceeded expectations in a 16-point win against No. 5 seed Saint Mary's behind a crisp and efficient offensive showing. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 13 | |
| 10 | 
Providence
|
| There's an argument to move Providence up ahead of both Texas Tech and UCLA based on combined margin (37 points) of the Friars' two wins. Ultimately, the original seed line order remained with some of the positives of a 28-point win in the second round being offset by the context of the opponent being a No. 12 seed Richmond team that would not have made the field as an at-large selection. Ignoring silly ranking debates, Providence fans should love what they saw in Buffalo as the Friars held a pair of upset darlings under 60 points to advance to the Sweet 16 for first time since 1997. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 15 | |
| 11 | 
Arkansas
|
| We didn't have to "drop" Arkansas in the rankings, but in a Sweet 16 with all but five teams checking in as top-four seeds, there was no question who was going to be No. 11 in this exercise. The Razorbacks caught a couple of opponents with contrasting styles in No. 13 seed Vermont and No. 12 seed New Mexico State, and the second-round win against the Aggies required a grinding, gritty defensive effort to win a game where no one could make a shot. The combined margin of victory (nine points) is the lowest of any team in the Sweet 16, and with it coming against a No. 13 seed and a No. 12 seed, the position is the pecking order is going remain stagnant. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 16 | |
| 12 | 
N. Carolina
|
| As we mentioned earlier, North Carolina has the highest quality pair of wins in its record-setting 32-point win against No. 9 seed Marquette and its overtime win against No. 1 seed Baylor. But to jump the Tar Heels all the way ahead of Arkansas or another No. 4 seed would be to ignore the entire body of work from the season. North Carolina may be one of the hottest teams in the Sweet 16, but from a re-seeding perspective, the ceiling is the top remaining team from outside the top-four seed lines. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 30 | |
| 13 | 
Miami (Fla.)
|
| None of these bottom-five teams had a more impressive second-round performance than Miami's wire-to-wire, 18-point win against No. 2 seed Auburn. It's almost enough to warrant jumping North Carolina in the list, but some of the same reasons the two ACC foes were separated by eight spots on Selection Sunday remain after the second round. What's more interesting for Miami is that its Sweet 16 opponent, unlike the Tar Heels and the other double-digit seeds, is ranked lower on this list. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 38 | |
| 14 | 
Michigan
|
| The finest of margins separates Michigan from Iowa State in our analysis. Both teams beat a No. 6 seed and a No. 3 seed on the way to the Sweet 16, and both teams were strong enough with their performances in Quadrant 1 opportunities to avoid the First Four when it came time for tough bubble decisions. Ultimately, Michigan's eight-point win against Tennessee stood out as the "best" win of the four results, the combined margin of victory was higher and any power rating impact would favor the Wolverines' higher ceiling. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 42 | |
| 15 | 
Iowa St.
|
| The Cyclones might be No. 15 out of 16, but they have a better chance to make the Elite Eight than many of the teams that rank higher on this list. The Sweet 16 matchup with Miami is clearly favorable to drawing a top seed in the next round, and those narrow margins of victory against No. 6 seed LSU and No. 3 seed Wisconsin are also reflective of a battle-tested group that's comfortable relying on its defense and balanced scoring to win close in a tournament setting. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 41 | |
| 16 | 
St. Peter's
|
| Saint Peter's is the story of the NCAA Tournament and has executed Shaheen Holloway's game plan to perfection against two high-level programs in Kentucky and Murray State. But if we're seeding the teams, then Saint Peter's would remain at the bottom of the list, as those two quality wins still leave the Peacocks short when comparing resumes with the rest of the Sweet 16 field. Original NCAA Tournament seed: 60 | |
