March Madness 2026 live updates: Bracketology, bubble watch, predictions for NCAA Tournament field of 68

With Selection Sunday just a few days away, here's the latest as the NCAA Tournament's field of 68 is built

Entering Friday's robust slate of conference tournament games across college basketball, there's a bevy of bubble teams to keep an eye on with Selection Sunday coming into focus later this weekend. 

VCU is firmly on the bubble ahead of its A-10 quarterfinal matchup with Duquesne, one to watch given the expectation that league produces two NCAA Tournament teams — the Rams and Saint Louis. However, if George Washington or Dayton makes a run and wins the A-10 Tournament, that could be bad news for teams expecting at-large bids from other leagues, including SMU, Missouri, Oklahoma and Auburn.

Once firmly off the bubble, the Sooners ride a six-game winning streak into Friday's SEC Tournament quarterfinals against Arkansas. At 19-14 overall, Oklahoma's pair of postseason wins this week have strengthened its shot at reaching the NCAA Tournament and a victory over the Razorbacks would bolster the likelihood of this team dancing Sunday evening.

Seton Hall, New Mexico and San Diego State are three bubble teams also in action Friday who need to keep winning to have a shot at appearing in Sunday's bracket. Seton Hall takes on 13th-ranked St. John's in the Big East semifinals, while New Mexico and San Diego State square off in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. New Mexico currently sits as the first team out per CBS Sports Bracketology.

Follow along with the major conference tournaments: ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | SEC

Partly due to this season's weak bubble, Auburn and Indiana remain in the at-large discussion. The Hoosiers lost six of their final seven games to end the campaign, including a 74-61 loss to Northwestern in Wednesday's second round of the Big Ten Tournament. The Tigers whiffed on a chance to improve their resume after Thursday's loss to Tennessee, Auburn's ninth setback in its last 12 games. 

Entering the semifinals of the MAC Tournament, UMass, Toledo, Kent State and Akron each have a chance to reach the NCAA Tournament with two more wins following the Minutemen's stunning victory Thursday over previously-unbeaten Miami (Ohio). While seeding has changed, the RedHawks (31-1) remain in CBS Sports' latest Bracketology projection with the MAC now being a two-bid league.

Selection Sunday is just two days away, and the next 48 hours and change represent the final opportunities for teams to battle for seeding, at-large berths and potential bid-stealing title wins in various conference tournaments ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament reveal. The selection committee is watching and is hard at work working through various bracket scenarios as conference tournaments wind to a close.

We're tracking all the Bracketology madness here.  

[Mar 14, 2026 at 12:33 am ET · David Cobb]

Oklahoma came agonizingly close to reaching "almost there" status on Friday by taking Arkansas down to the wire in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Ultimately, the Sooners came up just short in an 82-79 loss. Reaching the semifinals was always the target for OU, and it came up one game short. This team played great basketball down the stretch, but at 19-15, the Sooners might be a tough sell in the committee room.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 10:42 pm ET · David Cobb]

A season to forget for Ole Miss will have an ending to remember, regardless of what happens from here. The Rebels stunned Alabama in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament on Friday, outlasting the Crimson Tide 80-79 for their third win in three days.

Ole Miss needs two more victories to reach the NCAA Tournament. But after knocking off three projected at-large teams in three days, the Rebels shouldn't be counted out. After all, they haven't trailed at any point so far during what's becoming the top Cinderella story of conference tournament week.

One season after reaching the Sweet 16, Ole Miss cratered by losing 12 of its last 13 regular-season games. The precipitous slide left coach Chris Beard's club as the No. 15 seed for the SEC Tournament. They are still just 15-19 after Friday's win, but after beginning the week with 300-to-1 odds of winning the SEC Tournament, hope is alive.

Bracketology winners and losers: Ole Miss is conference tournament week's Cinderella, Auburn's hopes diminish

David Cobb

[Mar 13, 2026 at 9:42 pm ET · Cameron Salerno]

SEC Tournament: Ole Miss 80, Alabama 79

Ole Miss won four games against SEC play in conference play and now has three wins in three days after another upset win. Ole Miss advanced to the semifinals with an 80-79 win over No. 2 seed Alabama. The Rebels haven't trailed in any of the three SEC games so far. To be clear, Ole Miss has zero chance at getting an at-large bid, but if they can secure two more wins, they're in.

Ole Miss plays the winner of Arkansas vs. Oklahoma on Saturday. The Rebels are the second team in SEC history to win three games to reach the semifinals.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 9:12 pm ET · Cameron Salerno]

Big 12 Tournament: Arizona 82, Iowa State 80

What. A. Finish.

Arizona is moving on to the Big 12 title game after Jaden Bradley knocked down a tough jumper at the buzzer to give his team the win. With the win, Arizona is still alive for the No. 1 overall seed. The Wildcats will face the winner of Kansas vs. Houston for the conference title on Saturday.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 7:58 pm ET · Cameron Salerno]

Big East Tournament: St. John's 78, Seton Hall 68

St. John's is advancing to the Big East title game after defeating Seton Hall 78-68. The Red Storm will face the winner of Georgetown vs. UConn on Saturday for bragging rights. St. John's is seeking back-to-back conference titles, while UConn could make it two in three years.

In our CBS Sports Bracketology projections, we have Seton Hall as one of the "Next Four Out." Seton Hall will likely be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday. St. John's benefited from this win, as our projections have the Red Storm jumping from a No. 6 to a No. 5 seed.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 7:34 pm ET · Isaac Trotter]

It was not always pretty, but VCU knocked off Duquesne, 71-66, to advance to the A-10 semifinals. VCU is right on the cut-line for a NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Knocking off Duquesne doesn't sufficiently move the needle, but a loss would've been a crippler. VCU stays alive for yet another day, and it is just 80 good minutes away from not having to stress on Selection Sunday at all.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 6:44 pm ET · David Cobb]

NASHVILLE -- Florida profiled as a top-100 team in 3-point percentage (35.6%) as it rode the perimeter marksmanship of Walter Clayton Jr. -- among other things -- to a national title last season.

This year, the Gators are a sub-300 3-point shooting team (30.8%) and still every bit as dominant as the squad that won it all.

Case in point: Friday's 71-63 SEC Tournament quarterfinal victory over Kentucky.

Ice-cold shooting barely phased red-hot Florida vs. Kentucky; is a Gators repeat national title inevitable?

David Cobb

[Mar 13, 2026 at 5:50 pm ET · David Cobb]

Illinois is no longer a No. 2 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology after falling 91-88 in overtime against Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. Who winds up replacing the Illini exiting the day will depend on the results of Purdue vs. Nebraska and Arizona vs. Iowa State. Illinois has dropped four overtime games since the start of February.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 3:33 pm ET · David Cobb]

With UConn lurking nearby and ready to pounce on a potential Florida loss in the race for the final No. 1 seed, the Gators handled business with a 71-63 win over Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Florida is now 10-1 when hitting fewer than seven 3-pointers this season. The Gators obliterated Kentucky on the glass with a 18-8 edge in offensive rebounds leading to a 21-8 edge in second-chance points

[Mar 13, 2026 at 3:14 pm ET · David Cobb]

Here is a look at 39-50 in WAB entering Friday's action

Every team in the top 40 of WAB is considered a lock for our purposes entering Friday's action, except for any team that could still slip out of the top 40 based on conference tournament performance.

39. Saint Louis | won Friday
40. Texas A&M*
41. Missouri*
42. VCU | plays Friday
43. NC State*
44. Auburn*
45. SMU*
46. Texas*
47. Oklahoma | plays Friday
48. McNeese | clinched automatic bid
49. San Diego State | plays Friday
50. New Mexico | plays Friday
*eliminated from conference tournament

Why college basketball fans should master Wins Above Bubble: WAB is new factor in NCAA Tournament selection

David Cobb

[Mar 13, 2026 at 2:26 pm ET · David Cobb]

Final: Michigan 71, Ohio State 67

Michigan was pushed to the brink by Ohio State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament as the Wolverines opened their postseason march. The Wolverines hit just 5 of 17 attempts from 3-point range and hit made just one triple in the second half. The Buckeyes actually took the lead briefly late in the game before going cold down the stretch. Duke and Michigan both looked shaky in their opening conference tournament games as the race for the No. 1 overall seed continues. That's not shocking since both are dealing with injuries to key guards.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 1:52 pm ET · David Cobb]

Top-seeded Saint Louis rallied from a 21-point deficit to edge No. 9 seed George Washington 88-81 in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. That will likely move the Billikens to "lock" status in CBS Sports Bracketology tomorrow after some late-season struggles saw Saint Louis plummet in selection metrics. 

Ideal scenario for bubble teams (1-bid A10): Saint Louis wins the Atlantic 10 Tournament + VCU fails to reach the title game. In that scenario, it's possible the A10 would land as a one-bid league. VCU is currently among the Last Four In at CBS Sports Bracketology as it prepares to play Duquesne in the quarterfinals.

Nightmare scenario for bubble teams (3-bid A10): Saint Louis loses in the A10 semifinals and VCU reaches the title game but loses to someone not named Saint Louis. In that scenario, Saint Louis would be safe, VCU might be safe and a third team would get the league's automatic bid.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 12:18 pm ET · Brad Crawford]

First-year Texas coach Sean Miller isn't sweating the Longhorns' NCAA Tournament fate after losing for the fifth time in his team's final six games this week at the SEC Tournament. Slotted as one of CBS Sports Bracketology's last four in, Texas (18-14) needs to avoid bid-stealing scenarios that could unfold over the next two days across college basketball.

"I have zero anxiety entering the weekend, simply because of this — I came to Texas to build a championship program," Miller said. "There's steps and foundations that have to be laid. Processes, failure, really learning what the SEC is really about. This has been very rewarding and enlightening and when you get to the finality of it, whatever happens, I'm at peace."

Miller said his team "fought a good fight" this season following Wednesday's loss to Ole Miss and believes the Longhorns' resume is worthy of merit from the selection committee. Texas is ranked No. 42 in NET, 51st in WAB and has six Quad 1 wins in 15 tries this season.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 12:05 pm ET · Isaac Trotter]

It's a heavy-hitting Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal round. There aren't any bubble implications — all eight teams are locks for the Big Dance — but the caliber of team opens up potential paths to move up the seed line on Selection Sunday.

Here are the matchups:

• Michigan (current No. 1 seed) vs. Ohio State (current No. 8 seed). 
• Illinois (current No. 2 seed) vs. Wisconsin (No. 6 seed)
• Purdue (current No. 3 seed) vs. Nebraska (No. 3 seed)
• UCLA (current No. 8 seed) vs. Michigan State (No. 2 seed).

The one debate has always centered around how much this tournament actually matters, especially after Michigan won three games in three days and stayed on the No. 5 line.

"Michigan had a lot of success in this tournament last year, and their seed did not move," Purdue coach Matt Painter said. "They might have slid up a little bit, but they stayed where they stayed. So like after you've done it for 21 years, you realize that. I didn't used to realize that. You're just like, hey, this is where you are. We're going to be a 3 seed or a 4 seed. We're right there on that. But sometimes you don't play heavy hitters. We're playing a team that's a 3 seed right now in our next game. So like that could have some effect there. Sometimes when you don't play people like yourself -- a 2 seed, a 3 seed, a 4 seed. Obviously we have a 1 seed still in the tournament. Illinois is a 2 seed. Michigan State is a 2 seed. I think Nebraska is a 3 seed, and we're a 4 seed, if we're all following the same thing. So you're right in there. 

"You've got a chance to play some people here if you can win your next game and really help yourself. I think probably more help yourself get prepared for the NCAA Tournament because this is the caliber of teams you're going to play."

[Mar 13, 2026 at 11:03 am ET · Brad Crawford]

The latest CBS Sports bracketology is live and Friday's slate offers several games of NCAA Tournament significance ...

If Seton Hall beats St. Johns ... all eyes will be glued to the Big East Tournament final against (likely) UConn since the Pirates are currently not expected to reach the NCAA Tournament. A quality win for Seton Hall like beating the Red Storm might be enough to thwart the hopes of several other bubble teams who squandered their respective chances in other conference tournaments.

If Duquesne beats VCU ... it's not looking good for the Rams, who are firmly on the bubble from the A-10. Right now, Saint Louis is the lone team essentially locked into a berth from the conference. The Billikens play George Washington on Friday.

If San Diego State beats New Mexico ... the Lobos are off the bubble and the Aztecs will have a chance to play for a spot in the NCAA Tournament against the winner of Utah State-Nevada. The Mountain West is only expected to be a one-bid league, so San Diego State (or New Mexico + Nevada) upsetting the Aggies complicates matters for others on the bubble.

Texas, Missouri and SMU are three teams currently in the at-large discussion who will sit on their hands this weekend after losing early in their conference tournaments.

[Mar 13, 2026 at 10:54 am ET · David Cobb]

Michigan and Florida will begin their postseason journeys on Friday with pivotal quarterfinal games in their respective conference tournaments that could impact the No. 1 seed hierarchy with just two days remaining until Selection Sunday. Given the vulnerability that Duke displayed in a narrow victory over Florida State in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday, the Blue Devils are at risk of being dislodged from the No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology.

If they stumble against Clemson on Friday night in the ACC semifinals, Michigan would be well-positioned to reach the No. 1 overall seed. The Wolverines would have to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals to remain in the hunt for the top seed in the bracket.

Read more below: 

Bracketology: Michigan, Arizona lurking as Duke looks shaky in race for No. 1 overall seed at NCAA Tournament

David Cobb

[Mar 13, 2026 at 1:03 am ET · David Cobb]

With Oklahoma's 83-63 win over Texas A&M, the Sooners have — for now — replaced SMU as the last team in the field of 68. As it pertains to the bubble, the games to watch on Friday will be in the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West, specifically with VCU. The Rams must avoid a loss to Duquesne in the A10 quarterfinals, or else they could slide and open the door back up for teams currently on the outside looking in.

Among those teams are San Diego State and New Mexico, who are trying to make noise in the Mountain West Tournament. As for OU, a win over Arkansas in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals would be strongly advised.

LAST FOUR IN: Santa Clara, Mizzou, VCU, Oklahoma

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, Auburn, New Mexico, Seton Hall

[Mar 12, 2026 at 10:45 pm ET · David Cobb]

The Duke-Florida State thriller was one of several conference tournament games on Thursday with serious bubble implications. Here's the rundown of Bracketology-oriented winners and losers from the day's action as Selection Sunday creeps closer.

Bracketology winners and losers: Duke pops Florida State's bubble, UConn stays in No. 1 seed debate

David Cobb

[Mar 12, 2026 at 9:23 pm ET · David Cobb]

Final: Duke 80, Florida State 79

Florida State came so close to becoming one of March's best stories, but the Seminoles fell 80-79 after Robert McCray V's last-second 3-point attempt missed the mark. The Seminoles would have surged into at-large consideration with a win, but they won't make the NCAA Tournament at 18-15. Nonetheless, a good late-season push from FSU under first-year coach Luke Loucks.

Duke will remain the No. 1 overall seed — for now — in CBS Sports Bracketology after squeaking out the win. Playing without Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II, the Blue Devils employed just a 7-man rotation. But Isaiah Evans was awesome, finishing with 32 points in 39 minutes.

[Mar 12, 2026 at 8:11 pm ET · David Cobb]

Duke trails Florida State 44-43 at halftime in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils are currently the No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology but would fall to the No. 3 overall seed behind Michigan and Arizona with a loss. The Blue Devils are playing without starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II, who are both out due to injury.

This game is huge for Florida State, too, as the Seminoles would enter the at-large discussion with a victory. FSU has won 10 of its past 12 games following an 8-12 start.

[Mar 12, 2026 at 6:47 pm ET · David Cobb]

Resetting where the Last Four in/First Four Out stand in CBS Sports Bracketology end as the evening window of conference tournament action begins. SMU is the beneficiary of Auburn's loss, as the Mustangs have risen back to into the field for now.

Last Four In

Santa Clara**
Missouri** | lost 78-72 vs. Kentucky in the second round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday
VCU | plays Friday in Atlantic 10 Tournament quarterfinals
SMU** (last team in)

First Four Out

Auburn** | lost 72-62 vs. Tennessee in the second round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday
Oklahoma | plays at 9:30 pm. ET vs. Texas A&M
New Mexico | plays at 11:30 p.m. ET vs. San Jose State (CBS Sports Network)
Seton Hall | beat Creighton 72-61 in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday

**done playing this week

[Mar 12, 2026 at 5:40 pm ET · Cameron Salerno]

SEC Tournament: Tennessee 72, Auburn 62

With 1:10 remaining in the first half, Auburn stretched its lead to 11 points over Tennessee on Thursday in the second round of the SEC Tournament. For almost 30 minutes, Auburn was in control before Tennessee went on a 21-0 run to take the lead back for good, and potentially end Auburn's hopes for an at-large berth.

According to CBS Sports' latest Bracketology model/projections, Auburn will drop to the "First Four Out" following the loss. The Tigers were one of the "Last Four In" as a No. 11 seed entering the day. Our model gives Auburn a 40% chance of receiving an at-large berth to the Big Dance.

Auburn is now 17-16. If the Tigers are selected, it would mark the most losses by an at-large team in the history of the tournament.

[Mar 12, 2026 at 5:04 pm ET · David Cobb]

It can be easy to get lost in the sea of metrics, acronyms and analytics-based services that start flying around the college basketball universe this time of year. On official team sheets used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, there are a whopping seven metrics, all with some sort of shorthand abbreviation.

If you only have the bandwidth to master one before Selection Sunday, consider learning Wins Above Bubble. Introduced officially last season to the NCAA Tournament selection process, WAB is a resume-based metric rapidly becoming a staple of the college hoops lexicon.

Why college basketball fans should master Wins Above Bubble: WAB is new factor in NCAA Tournament selection

David Cobb

[Mar 12, 2026 at 4:43 pm ET · Isaac Trotter]

Seton Hall is staying in the fight while the rest of its bubble compadres collapse. The Pirates outlasted Creighton, 72-61, in the Big East quarterfinals to improve to 21-11. The win earned Seton Hall approximately +0.33 in Wins Above Bubble. Seton Hall will jump from 57th in WAB to No. 50 nationally with a -0.40 WAB overall. The cut-line -- historically in the mid-40s -- is within reach. 

Seton Hall is still out of the projected field, but Thursday's win inches it ever closer. A win over top-seeded St. John's in Friday's semifinals could catapult Seton Hall above the morass.

[Mar 12, 2026 at 4:00 pm ET · Cameron Salerno]

Wednesday was another busy day as automatic bids were awarded to the 2026 NCAA Tournament from the Big Sky, Patriot League and the Southland. The winners of those conferences joined the 12 teams that had already clinched a berth to the Big Dance.

McNeese defeated Stephen F. Austin 76-59 in the Southland Tournament title game. The Cowboys' win over SFA came less than 24 hours after securing a dramatic triple-overtime win over UT Rio Grande Valley in the semifinals. McNeese will make its third consecutive appearance in the Big Dance.

In the Patriot League, Lehigh defeated Boston University 74-60 to punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The Mountain Hawks will be making their first appearance in the Big Dance since 2012 -- the year the program upset Duke in the first round.

College basketball conference tournaments 2026: Arkansas, Purdue clinch final auto bids to the NCAA Tournament

Cameron Salerno

[Mar 12, 2026 at 3:20 pm ET · David Cobb]

A new wave of NCAA Tournament locks has emerged entering Thursday's conference tournament action, as results continue rolling in. UCF, Iowa, Texas A&M and Santa Clara have passed from the "almost there" category into lock status for the Big Dance as other bubble contenders keep struggling.

UCF and Iowa both won their Wednesday conference tournament games. Even though the victories came against teams not expected to make the NCAA Tournament, they brought some insurance. Both teams should be solidly in the field, regardless of what happens from here.

Santa Clara and Texas A&M didn't even play Wednesday, but both appear to be safely in the field now. The Broncos are on track to enter Selection Sunday with a Wins Above Bubble score above 2.0, meaning they have roughly two more victories against their schedule than the average bubble team would.

Selection Sunday arrives: The NCAA Tournament locks, bubble teams and longshots you need to know

David Cobb

[Mar 12, 2026 at 2:55 pm ET · Cameron Salerno]

SEC Tournament: No. 9 Kentucky 78, No. 8 Missouri 72

Entering the day, Missouri was considered "almost there" to lock up an at-large berth to the Big Dance. After losing to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament, the Tigers will have to sweat out the next few days until Selection Sunday. With the loss, Missouri is projected to fall to the "Last Four In" category, which could make a trip to Dayton for the First Four next week possible. It is notable that, because so many teams have failed to capitalize on not having to leave their fate up to the committee this weekend, Missouri still has a chance to avoid playing in Dayton entirely.

Still, the Tigers should be safe. In our CBS Sports projections, the Tigers have an 83% chance to earn a trip to the Big Dance.

Kentucky will play No. 1 seed Florida on Friday in the quarterfinals. The Gators are in contention to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Selection Sunday arrives: The NCAA Tournament locks, bubble teams and longshots you need to know

David Cobb

[Mar 12, 2026 at 2:40 pm ET · David Cobb]

ACC Tournament: Virgina 81, NC State 74

NC State beat Pitt in the ACC Tournament on Wednesday, but the Wolfpack are remaining in the "almost there" category for now after losing to Virginia on Thursday. Their best road wins over Clemson and SMU have depreciated in value, and a 24-point beatdown of North Carolina comes with a significant asterisk since UNC was missing stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. Thus, it still feels premature to call NC State a lock just yet, though it remains firmly on the right side of the bubble in CBS Sports Bracketology.

[Mar 12, 2026 at 2:30 pm ET · Matt Norlander]

It's Thursday of conference tournament week, which means the sprint to Selection Sunday has begun.

At CBS Sports, that process is unfolding a little differently this season. Each morning a group of data scientists and reporters gather to build the projected field of 68 -- a model-driven exercise with human fingerprints. Consensus is the goal. Dissent is encouraged. And with several bubble teams separated by the thinnest of margins, there's plenty of it. 

The bigger issue: this bubble might be the weakest in recent memory.

Matt Norlander's Court Report: Ranking a historically shaky NCAA Tournament bubble

Matt Norlander

[Mar 12, 2026 at 2:15 pm ET · David Cobb]

A sprint to the finish for the prospective No. 1 seeds in the 2026 NCAA Tournament begins Thursday, when Duke, Arizona and UConn start their postseason journeys with conference tournament action. The duration of their stays will determine how the top line in the bracket ends up looking when the field of 68 is revealed March 15 on CBS (6 p.m. ET). 

While Duke, Arizona and Michigan are all destined for No. 1 seeds, the battle for the No. 1 overall seed will come down to what transpires over the next few days. So will the battle for the final No. 1 seed.

In both cases, the selection committee's valuation of head-to-head results could prove significant.

Bracketology: Race for NCAA Tournament's top seeds enters final stretch before Selection Sunday

David Cobb