Two teams with a lot at stake collide on Sunday when the Memphis Tigers face the No. 21 Houston Cougars. The Tigers (21-9) can lock down the No. 4 seed and a bye in next week's American Athletic Conference Tournament with a win, while the Cougars (22-8) can gain a share of the AAC regular-season title with a victory and a Wichita State triumph over Tulsa. Memphis leads the all-time series 33-17.

Tip-off from the Fertitta Center is set for noon ET. The Cougars are nine-point favorites in the latest Memphis vs. Houston odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 135. Before making any Houston vs. Memphis picks or college basketball predictions, make sure you see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 18 of the 2019-20 season on a 72-48 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Memphis vs. Houston. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Houston vs. Memphis:

  • Memphis vs. Houston spread: Houston -9
  • Memphis vs. Houston over-under: 135 points
  • Memphis vs. Houston money line: Memphis +349, Houston -468
  • MEM: The Tigers are averaging 72.5 points per game
  • HOU: The Cougars are fourth nationally in total rebounds at 41.4

Why Houston can cover

The Cougars just know how to win and are tied with Michigan as the eighth-winningest team in NCAA Division I since the start of the 2017-18 season, posting an 82-20 record, and are 55-12 since 2018-19. Only Gonzaga (94), Virginia (88), Duke (85), Villanova (85), Kansas (84), Michigan State (83) and New Mexico State (83) have more wins than Houston in that three-year span.

Offensively, sophomore guard Caleb Mills leads the Cougars in scoring at 13.5 points per game. He has been on fire of late, scoring 15 or more in four straight games and is averaging 20.8 points during that stretch, including a season-high 27-point performance in a 76-43 win against Tulsa on Feb. 19.

Why Memphis can cover

Even so, the Cougars aren't a lock to cover the Houston vs. Memphis spread. That's because the Tigers have been dominant in the state of Texas in March, going 23-3 over the years, including 8-0 at Houston and 6-0 in the Fertitta Center. They also lead the nation in field goal percentage defense at 36.1. 

Freshman forward Precious Achiuwa has been on a roll. He is averaging 15.5 points and 10.6 rebounds per game with 17 double-doubles on the season. His best scoring game was a 25-point performance in a win over Mississippi on Nov. 23, while his best rebounding effort was 22 against Tulsa on Feb. 29, when he also dropped in 22 points. 

How to make Memphis vs. Houston picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says Memphis' Boogie Ellis will score two more points than he has been averaging over the past four games, while Houston's Justin Gorham will better his season average by more than one point. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that has all the value. 

So who wins Houston vs. Memphis? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Memphis vs. Houston spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model on a 72-48 run on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.