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After a highly-entertaining week of games, the 2021 Battle 4 Atlantis comes to a close on Friday in The Bahamas. In the championship matchup, the No. 6 Baylor Bears face the Michigan State Spartans in a battle between top-flight programs. Baylor is 6-0 after beating VCU in the semifinals on Thursday. Michigan State is 5-1 following a narrow win over UConn in its last contest.

Tipoff is at 11 a.m. ET in Nassau. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bears as five-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 139.5 in the latest Baylor vs. Michigan State odds. Before making any Michigan State vs. Baylor picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. Baylor. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Baylor vs. Michigan State:

  • Baylor vs. Michigan State spread: Baylor -5
  • Baylor vs. Michigan State over-under: 139.5 points
  • BAY: The Bears are 3-2-1 against the spread this season
  • MSU: The Spartans are 4-2 against the spread in 2021-22
Featured Game | Baylor Bears vs. Michigan State Spartans

Why Baylor can cover

The Bears have won 12 straight games, dating back to a national championship winning season in 2020-21. Baylor is elite on both ends of the floor, with depth and athleticism all over the floor. The Bears are dominating the offensive glass, securing nearly 40 percent of available rebounds, and Baylor is making 54.2 percent of 2-point shots and 34.8 percent of 3-point shots. Baylor is assisting on 62.6 percent of field goals and the Bears are also turning the ball over on only 17.7 percent of offensive possessions. 

On defense, Scott Drew's team is generating a 28.5 percent turnover rate and a 16.3 percent steal rate, both of which rank in the top eight nationally. Baylor is strongly above-average in block rate and shooting-efficiency allowed, and opponents are grabbing only 23.4 percent of available offensive rebounds against the Bears through six games this season.

Why Michigan State can cover

Michigan State's defense is playing at an elite level. The Spartans rank No. 2 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are making life difficult on opponents. Michigan State is allowing only a 40.6 percent effective field-goal shooting clip this season, with opponents making 39.2 percent of 2-point shots and 28.9 percent of 3-point shots. The Spartans are also in the top 20 in block rate at 16.7 percent and strongly above-average with a 74.2 percent defensive rebound rate. 

Michigan State is excellent at keeping opponents away from the free-throw line, and that is also crucial. On offense, Michigan State is better than average, including a 50.2 percent mark on 2-point shots. The Spartans do a lot of their damage on the offensive glass, securing more than 35 percent of missed shots.

How to make Baylor vs. Michigan State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 141 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 80 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan State vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread hits in over 80 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $2,100 on its college basketball picks the last five years, and find out.