The Michigan State Spartans and No. 22 UConn Huskies both won memorable games on Wednesday. Twenty-four hours later, the teams will match up in one semifinal at the 2021 Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. Michigan State is 4-1 this season after toppling Loyola-Chicago on Wednesday. Connecticut improved to 5-0 with a double-overtime victory over Auburn.

Tipoff is at noon ET in Nassau. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Huskies as one-point favorites in the latest UConn vs. Michigan State odds. The over-under for total points is set at 141.5. Before making any Michigan State vs. UConn picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. Connecticut. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Connecticut vs. Michigan State:

  • Michigan State vs. UConn spread: UConn -1
  • Michigan State vs. UConn over-under: 141.5 points
  • MSU: The Spartans are 3-2 against the spread this season
  • UConn: The Huskies are 3-2 against the spread in 2021-22
Featured Game | Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan State Spartans

Why Michigan State can cover

The Spartans are solid on the offensive end, headlined by a 35.5 percent offensive rebound rate and impressive 2-point shooting at 54.4 percent. With that said, Michigan State is led by its stifling defense. The Spartans currently rank in the top three nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, displaying overarching resistance. Michigan State is a top-20 team in limiting opponent shooting efficiency, with the Spartans holding the opposition to 31.2 percent from 3-point range and 38.1 percent inside the arc. 

Michigan State is also rejecting more than 20 percent of shots, landing in the top 10 nationally, and the Spartans have a 10.4 steal rate. Opponents are assisting on only 45.5 percent of field goals, and Michigan State is securing 74.4 percent of available rebounds on the defensive glass. Finally, Marcus Bingham Jr. is excelling as a rim protector and anchor, averaging 8.4 rebounds, 1.8 steals and a whopping 4.6 blocks per game.

Why UConn can cover

UConn faced its toughest test of the season on Wednesday and emerged victorious. In addition to an unblemished record, the Huskies have a tremendous statistical profile, including top-30 national marks in offensive and defensive efficiency. UConn is securing 42.6 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass, ranking in the top five nationally, and the Huskies are also a top-eight team in 3-point shooting at 43.6 percent. 

The Huskies are above-average in free-throw creation and turnover avoidance, and UConn has talent up and down the roster. On defense, the Huskies are limiting opponents to less than 40 percent shooting on 2-point attempts, and UConn is a top-20 team in shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation. Michigan State has ball security issues, turning the ball over on more than 21 percent of possessions, and the Spartans are shooting just 30.9 percent from 3-point range this season.

How to make UConn vs. Michigan State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 142 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 70 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan State vs. UConn? And which side of the spread hits in 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $2,100 on its college basketball picks the last five years, and find out.