Michigan vs. Michigan State odds, line: College basketball picks, optimal predictions from model on 16-8 roll

The top of the Big Ten will take center stage on Sunday when Michigan State visits Michigan at 3:45 p.m. ET. The No. 10 Spartans and No. 7 Wolverines are both 13-3 in the league and will play each other twice in the final four games. Who wins on Sunday will potentially decide which team raises their banner as regular-season Big Ten champs next season. With the Spartans dealing with injuries to Nick Ward, Joshua Langford and Kyle Ahrens, the Wolverines are four-point favorites at home in the latest Michigan vs. Michigan State odds. The total is at 134 for Sunday's showdown, up three from the opener after heavy action on the Over leading up to tipoff. Before you make any Michigan vs. Michigan State picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. 

It also entered Week 16 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 16-8 run on top-rated college basketball side picks either against the spread or on the money line. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has locked in on Michigan vs. Michigan State. We can tell you it's backing the over, but it also has a strong against the spread pick that hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

For Sunday's matchup, besides the obvious health advantage and having the benefit of playing at home, one key for the Wolverines will be their ability to run Michigan State off the 3-point line. 

Without Ward on the inside, the Spartans will need to rely on their perimeter shooting to score until they can get their most productive post back. So, it's extremely helpful that the Wolverines rank 19th in the nation in 3-point shooting defense, allowing Division-I opponents to make just 30.1 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc. 

In conference play, they've been extremely effective, allowing opponents to shoot just 30.2 percent from 3-point range. The length of 6-foot-7 Ignas Brazdeikis, 6-foot-5 Jordan Poole, and 6-foot-6 Charles Matthews make Michigan very tough to shoot over the top of on the outside.

However, that doesn't mean the Wolverines are a lock to cover the Michigan vs. Michigan State spread on Sunday.

The Spartans lead the nation by assisting on 68.6 percent of their made field goals and the Wolverines will be required to defend side to side as Michigan State gets everybody involved.

Cassius Winston will be the key to it all with Nick Ward out indefinitely, Joshua Langford out for the season and Kyle Ahrens questionable. And it's hard to imagine anybody is more qualified to carry that sort of load while elevating the play of his teammates stepping into expanded roles than Winston, who averages 18.9 points and 7.4 assists per game.

Who wins Michigan State vs. Michigan? And which side of the spread cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Michigan State vs. Michigan spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model that has returned more than $5,000 to $100 players the last two years.

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