Mississippi State vs. Kentucky odds, line: College basketball picks, predictions from red-hot model on 15-6 roll

The 22nd-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs head to Rupp Arena as an underdog for this first time this season, facing the No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats for a SEC college basketball showdown at 7 p.m. ET. The Wildcats (14-3) are unbeaten at home, but Mississippi State (14-3) has just one road loss all year and is coming off a 16-point victory at Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are favored by seven points at home with an over-under for total points scored set at 144.5 in the latest Kentucky vs. Mississippi State odds. Kentucky has beaten Mississippi State 11 times in a row, but you'll want to see what the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model is picking before laying any Kentucky vs. Mississippi State picks of your own. It's showing a strong lean to one side of the spread for this one.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. And it enters Week 12 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a strong 15-6 run on top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anybody who has been following it is way up. 

Now the model has evaluated the latest Kentucky vs. Mississippi State spread. We can tell you it is leaning to the over, and it has an extremely strong pick against the spread, saying one side hits in nearly 60 percent of its simulations, a huge number that indicates the line is way off.

Kentucky has certainly turned it around since the embarrassing season-opening loss to Duke. The Wildcats have won 14 of 16, including wins over ranked North Carolina and Auburn, with their two losses by a combined three points.

Kentucky is known for its top-flight freshman play, and that's the case again this year, led by first-year guards Keldon Johnson (14.9 ppg) and Tyler Herro (13.5 ppg). The key to UK's latest run may be freshman point guard Ashton Hagans, who was installed into the starting lineup mid-season and has been a major boost on offense and defense. He's averaging 14.8 points and five assists in his last five games and almost four steals per game over his last seven.

The Wildcats also have a pair of physical and talented post starters in 6'8" grad transfer Reid Travis (13 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and 6'8" sophomore PJ Washington (11.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg).

But just because the red-hot Wildcats have won every game at Rupp Arena so far doesn't mean they will cover the spread or even beat the Bulldogs on Tuesday night.

MSU is just 2-2 in the SEC, but all three of its losses this season -- to Arizona State, South Carolina in OT and Ole Miss -- have been by five points or less. That's an inviting stat for a seven point underdog.

While rebounding is a strength for the Wildcats, it has been a big edge for the Bulldogs, who own a plus-6 edge on the boards. They held Vanderbilt to zero offensive rebounds in the second half of Saturday's 71-55 road win.

They're also scoring 79 points thanks in large part to a 38.1 percent 3-point shooting effort. Four players average in double digits, and two of the top three are seniors -- 6-4 guard Quinndary Weatherspoon (16.6 ppg), 6-0 junior Lamar Peters (13.3) and 6-10 senior Aric Holman (12.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg) provide a huge experience edge for the Bulldogs.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Kentucky? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which you need to be all over, all from the model that is crushing college hoops, and find out.

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