The SEC and Atlantic 10 collide on Thursday when the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Richmond Spiders meet in the quarterfinals of the 2021 National Invitation Tournament at UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas. The Bulldogs (16-14) endured an up-and-down season, finishing ninth in the conference, and were knocked out of the SEC Tournament in a 37-point loss to Alabama. But they rebounded in the first round of the 2021 NIT with a 74-68 victory over No. 1 seed Saint Louis. Meanwhile the Spiders (14-8), who finished eighth in the Atlantic 10, ended a three-game losing streak with a 76-66 win over Toledo in the first round.
Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET. The Bulldogs are favored by four points in the latest Mississippi State vs. Richmond odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 136.5. Before making any Richmond vs. Mississippi State picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Richmond vs. Mississippi State in the NIT 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Mississippi State vs. Richmond:
- Mississippi State vs. Richmond spread: Bulldogs -4
- Mississippi State vs. Richmond over-under: 136.5 points
- Mississippi State vs. Richmond money line: Mississippi State -190, Richmond +160
- MSU: Team leads the SEC in rebound margin (7.0 rebounds per game)
- RICH: Jacob Gilyard leads the country in steals per game (3.55)
Why Mississippi State can cover
On paper, Mississippi State enters Thursday's game with a significant edge on the boards. The Bulldogs lead the SEC and rank 21st in the country in rebound margin (7.0 rebounds per game). That bodes well against a Richmond team that is 12th in the Atlantic 10 and 306th in the nation in rebound margin (-4.5).
In addition, Mississippi State has a prolific backcourt in D.J. Stewart Jr., Iverson Molinar and Tolu Smith. Led by Molinar's 16.7 points per game, the trio average 45.3 points per contest. The Bulldogs are 10-2 this season when each of the three reach double figures in scoring in the same game.
Why Richmond can cover
Richmond should get back leading scorer Blake Francis for Thursday's game. Francis (16.1 points per game) has missed the last two games because of a hip injury, but coach Chris Mooney expects him to be available against Mississippi State. His 3-point shooting (38.6 percent for his career) can help the Spiders stretch a Bulldogs defense that allows just 66.7 points a game.
In addition, Mississippi State does not shoot well from either the free throw line or from beyond the 3-point arc. The Bulldogs make just 5.2 3-pointers a game, which ranks 325th in the country. They also shoot just 65.1 percent on free throws, which ranks 315th. That latter could hinder Mississippi State from closing out Richmond in a tight game.
How to make Richmond vs. Mississippi State picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 142 points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Richmond vs. Mississippi State? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
