The Wolfpack will try to stay in the mix for a 2020 NCAA Tournament bid when North Carolina State travels to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in an ACC matchup Tuesday night. NC State (17-10) has won three of its past five, and despite a 67-61 loss to Florida State on Saturday, the Wolfpack remain in the running. The Tar Heels (10-17) are in the midst of a disappointing season, with a 72-55 setback against Louisville on Saturday marking their seventh loss in a row. 

Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET at Dean E. Smith Center. The Tar Heels are 2.5-point favorites in the latest NC State vs. North Carolina odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 148.5. Before considering any UNC vs. NC State picks or college basketball predictions, make sure you see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 17 of the 2019-20 season on a 66-40 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on North Carolina vs. NC State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for NC State vs. UNC:

  • North Carolina vs. NC State spread: Tar Heels -2.5
  • North Carolina vs. NC State over-under: 148.5
  • North Carolina vs. NC State money line: Tar Heels -144, Wolfpack +118
  • UNC: G Christian Keeling is averaging 10.2 points in his past six games.
  • NC ST: G Devon Daniels is averaging 20.2 points over the past four games.

Why North Carolina can cover

North Carolina is 21-15 against the spread in conference games the past two years, and it remains a talented team. Freshman guard Cole Anthony is a difference-maker, leading the team in scoring (19.4) and assists (3.7) while also averaging 6.3 rebounds and tying a team high with 1.4 steals. Senior guard Brandon Robinson scores 12.4 points, chips in 2.7 assists and more than a steal per game, and he has made 34.4 percent of his team-high 128 3-point tries.  

The Tar Heels have struggled with injuries, but they are 17-13-1 against the spread the past two years with equal rest. Forward Armando Bacot, a 6-foot-10 freshman, gets 10 points and 8.4 rebounds and blocks 1.3 shots. Versatile guard Leaky Black averages almost 30 minutes and does everything on both ends. 

Why NC State can cover

Even so, the Tar Heels aren't a lock to cover the North Carolina vs. NC State spread. NC State is 6-3 against the spread this season after a loss, and the Wolfpack are a seasoned bunch. Seniors C.J. Bryce and Markell Johnson and juniors Devon Daniels and DJ Funderburk each average more than 12 points, with Bryce at a team-high 13.3. Johnson also averages 6.4 assists, while Bryce is the top rebounder at 6.2. 

The Wolfpack have covered the spread in six of their 10 road games, and they average 7.4 steals per game. Johnson leads the team at 1.9, with Daniels at 1.7 and Bryce 1.3. Junior Braxton Beverly and sophomore Jericole Hellems also average more than 25 minutes per game and combine for 16.7 points and 5.4 rebounds. 

How to make North Carolina vs. NC State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with simulations showing that UNC will miss the contributions of several injured players and the Wolfpack's Bryce and Johnson both having below-average nights. The model also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations. 

So who wins NC State vs. North Carolina? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UNC vs. NC State spread to jump on Tuesday, all from the advanced model on a 66-40 run on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.