North Carolina vs. Virginia odds, line: College basketball picks, best predictions from model on 90-58 run

The Virginia Cavaliers fell from the top line in the ACC standings and from No. 3 to No. 4 in the nation after losing to Duke on Saturday. But they'll quickly have a chance to erase those memories as they visit No. 8 North Carolina on Monday at 7 p.m. ET. This massive ACC showdown has seen plenty of line movement, with the game as a pick'em after the line moved as high as North Carolina -1.5. The Over-Under for total points has also seen plenty of movement ahead of tipoff, falling from 143 to 140. Before making any North Carolina vs. Virginia picks of your own, check out the latest college basketball predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. During the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned more than $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 14 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 90-58 run on top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated North Carolina vs. Virginia 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can see that pick only at SportsLine.

The model has taken North Carolina's experience into account. While one-and-done players grab many of the college basketball headlines, the Tar Heels are hoping to make a run led by several seasoned veterans this season. 

Versatile wing Cameron Johnson is a fifth-year senior who averages 15.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per contest. Fellow senior Luke Maye averages 15.1 points and 9.7 rebounds. That veteran duo teams up with freshmen Coby White (15.9 points per game) and Nassir Little (10.3) to give UNC a strong balance of size, talent and experience that comes into this matchup with seven consecutive wins and an average of 88.3 points per game on the season.

But just because the Tar Heels are coming in hot doesn't mean they'll cover the North Carolina vs. Virginia spread on Monday.

Coach Tony Bennett, yet again, has the Cavaliers No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense (54.1 points per game). And while they regularly hold even the toughest opponents in the 50s and 60s, they're scoring an average of 72.8 themselves, aided by 14.6 from De'Andre Hunter and 14.5 from Kyle Guy.

Though it was in a losing effort, Virginia saw the return of point guard Ty Jerome (back) on Saturday against Duke. He was effective with 16 points and four assists, giving UVA another strong offensive option.

Who wins North Carolina vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the North Carolina vs. Virginia spread you should be all over, all from the model that has returned more than $5,000 to $100 players the last two years.

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