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The No. 9-seeded Wisconsin Badgers and the No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels face off in a highly-anticipated first-round matchup in the 2021 NCAA Tournament on Friday. The Badgers are 17-12 this season and coming off a loss to Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament. The Tar Heels are 18-10 overall following a loss to Florida State in the ACC Tournament. Neither team was profitable against the spread this season with UNC going 13-13 ATS, while Wisconsin had a 13-15 ATS mark. 

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Mackey Arena. The latest Wisconsin vs. North Carolina odds from William Hill Sportsbook list the Tar Heels as 1.5-point favorites, while the over-under for total points is 136.5. Before making any North Carolina vs. Wisconsin picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UNC vs. Wisconsin in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Wisconsin vs. UNC:

  • Wisconsin vs. North Carolina spread: North Carolina -1.5
  • Wisconsin vs. North Carolina over-under: 136.5 points
  • Wisconsin vs. North Carolina money line: North Carolina -125, Wisconsin +105
  • WIS: The Badgers are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • UNC: The Tar Heels are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why Wisconsin can cover 

Wisconsin is a deliberate team, but one that also plays with efficiency on both ends. The Badgers are No. 2 in the country in turnover rate offensively, giving the ball away on only 13.5 percent of possessions. Wisconsin is also a very strong free-throw shooting team, converting 76.7 percent of its attempts, and the Badgers are a strongly above-average 3-point shooting team at 36.0 percent. On the defensive side of the floor, Wisconsin is a top-15 team in adjusted efficiency (89.1) and the Badgers are above-average in limiting opponents to 47.1 percent on 2-point shots and 33.0 percent on 3-point shots.

Wisconsin's defensive rebounding is also key against a UNC team that puts pressure on the glass, and the Badgers are allowing opponents to grab only 25.1 percent of their own missed shots. Wisconsin also lands above the national average in both free-throw prevention and shot blocking, with the potential to create turnovers against a North Carolina squad that gives the ball away on 20.5 percent of offensive possessions.

Why North Carolina can cover

The Tar Heels are a very good defensive team, landing in the top 15 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. North Carolina has fantastic size and athleticism, helping to lead to a 12.8 percent block rate. That is potent against a Wisconsin team that struggles to finish near the rim, including a 46.8 percent mark on 2-point attempts, falling well below the national average. 

The Tar Heels are very good on the defensive glass, while Wisconsin struggles to grab offensive rebounds, and North Carolina leads the country in offensive rebound rate at 41.3 percent. Roy Williams' team also uses its physicality to post an above-average free throw creation rate, and those small wins on the margins can be critical. North Carolina is also facing an opponent that rarely creates turnovers, with Wisconsin forcing a giveaway on only 17.8 percent of defensive possessions.

How to make Wisconsin vs. North Carolina picks

The model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 136 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Wisconsin vs. North Carolina? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.