North Dakota State vs. Cal Poly odds, line: 2019 college basketball picks, predictions from top model

The North Dakota State Bison and Cal Poly Mustangs meet for the first time in an early-season test for both schools on Monday. The Bison (1-1) lost their season opener at Kansas State, 67-54, on Tuesday before rebounding with a 93-53 throttling of Mayville State in their home opener on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Mustangs (0-1) dropped a 77-63 decision at Santa Clara on Friday. Tip-off from Scheels Center in Fargo is set for 2 p.m. ET. Cal Poly looks to improve upon last year's 1-14 road record. The Bison are 15.5-point favorites in the latest North Dakota State vs. Cal Poly odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 140.5. Before making any Cal Poly vs. North Dakota State picks of your own, see the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It began the 2019-20 season hitting 60 percent of its top-rated spread selections.

Now the model has dialed in on Cal Poly vs. North Dakota State. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it's also generated an against the spread pick that hits in over 60 percent of simulations. That one is available exclusively at SportsLine.

The model knows the Bison have been one of the top teams in the Summit League under coach David Richman, who is 97-68 in six seasons at the school, making two NCAA Tournament appearances. North Dakota won the Summit League Tournament last year and was the regular season and tournament champion in 2014-15. The Bison are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage below .400.

Senior guard Tyson Ward has started the season on fire, averaging 16.5 points and six rebounds through the first two games. Sophomore guard-forward Sam Griesel has been a rebounding machine, grabbing nine boards against Kansas State before following that up with 10 boards against Mayville State in just 23 minutes of action. Griesel, who averaged 6.1 points last year, is averaging 10 points this season so far.

But just because the Bison are coming off a big win does not guarantee they will cover the North Dakota State vs. Cal Poly spread on Monday.

That's because Cal Poly is looking for marked improvement over last season. One of last year's bench players who has carried the load so far this season is sophomore guard Junior Ballard, who had 17 points, three rebounds and two steals in the loss to Santa Clara. Newcomer Kyle Colvin, a sophomore forward, poured in 11 points and grabbed seven rebounds in the opener.

Cal Poly returns three starters from a year ago, including junior forward Mark Crowe, who averaged 10 points and 4.6 rebounds in 2018-19; senior guard Job Alexander, who averaged 5.1 points and two rebounds; and senior forward Hank Hollingsworth, who averaged 4.6 points and 4.6 rebounds per game a year ago.

So who wins Cal Poly vs. North Dakota State? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cal Poly vs. North Dakota State spread to jump on Monday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $2,700 on its college basketball picks the last three years, and find out.

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