Penn State is in must-win mode when it comes to keeping its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. On Thursday, the Nittany Lions take on Northwestern in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Penn State is favored by 5.5 points, down from the opening line of -7. The Over/Under is set at 132.5.

In this important college hoops matchup between two desperate teams trying to keep their seasons going, you need to see what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has to say.

Oh, the co-founder of AccuScore and a specialist in sports data and simulations, has been crushing his recent college basketball picks. His data has helped him nail nine of his past 12 over-under picks, and he's been especially successful when Northwestern is involving, cashing in on six straight selections.

Now, he has analyzed this Big Ten Tournament matchup from every possible angle. We can tell you his projections say 129 points will be scored, three below the Over/Under, but his stronger pick is against the spread, and you can get that only over at SportsLine.

Oh knows Northwestern (15-16, 6-12) has lost six straight. Meanwhile, Penn State (19-12, 9-9) has dropped three in a row. A win Thursday, followed by a win over No. 2 seed Ohio State on Friday, could put PSU into the at-large conversation.

The Lions are expected to be without low-post presence Mike Watkins (12.1 points per game on 68.5 percent shooting, 8.5 rebounds) due to injury. He missed Sunday's 76-64 loss at Nebraska, a game in which the Lions were out-rebounded 41-25.

The Wildcats are in a funk, but they've remained competitive; only two of their last 10 games were decided by double-digits. Oh knows the team is now leaning on the play of senior Scottie Lindsey -- he's played all 40 minutes the last two games, averaging 29 points.

This is the rubber match between these two teams, with each winning on their home court this season (Northwestern 70-61, Penn State 73-68).

Oh has analyzed these key trends and zeroed in on a major statistical trend that determines which side of the spread you should back.

So which side of Northwestern-Penn State do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Northwestern-Penn State prevails, and what statistical trend determines the outcome, all from the data-driven expert on a six-game win streak picking Wildcats games.