Texas-Arlington vs. Georgia State odds: 2019 Sun Belt Tournament championship picks, predictions from model on 11-5 roll

Texas-Arlington and Georgia State will meet for the 2019 Sun Belt Tournament championship for the second successive year Sunday. Second-seeded Texas-Arlington (17-15) will seek a different result this time around as the Mavericks take aim at their first Sun Belt crown, while Georgia State (23-9) looks to add a tournament title to its résumé after winning the regular-season title. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET from Lakefront Arena in New Orleans. 

Georgia State won both regular-season meetings -- 63-58 at Texas-Arlington on Jan. 3 and 77-71 at home on Jan. 26. Georgia State is favored by 4 points in the latest Texas-Arlington vs. Georgia State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 138. Before making any Texas-Arlington vs. Georgia State picks of your own, be sure to consult the SportsLine Projection Model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. During the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Conference Championship Week on a strong 11-5 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now the model has dialed in on Texas-Arlington vs. Georgia State. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it has a strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is available only at SportsLine. 

The model knows Georgia State won the regular-season title with a 13-5 conference mark and has won four in a row and seven of eight. The Panthers, which are 10th nationally in 3-point percentage (39.3), have won two Sun Belt Conference Tournament championships -- 2015 and 2018. Junior guard D'Marcus Simonds (18.9 ppg) has scored in double figures in 30 of 32 games and scored 20 or more 15 times. 

Senior forward Jeff Thomas and sophomore guard Kane Williams have been huge thorns in the Mavericks' side this season. Thomas scored 27, while Williams had 16 in the Jan. 26 victory. Senior forward Malik Benlevi helped power the Panthers into Sunday's final with 15 points against Texas State on Saturday. 

But just because Georgia State won the Sun Belt regular-season title does not guarantee it will win or even cover the Sun Belt title game spread against Texas-Arlington. 

That's because the Mavericks have been red hot as well, winning five in a row and eight of 11. They beat third-seeded Georgia Southern 67-58 in Saturday's semifinal. Texas-Arlington finished the regular season 12-6 in conference play, tied for second with Texas State and Georgia Southern.

The Mavericks are looking for their first conference tournament title since winning the Southland championship in 2008 to earn their only NCAA Tournament appearance. They are led by junior guard Brian Warren, who had 21 against Georgia Southern in the semis.

So who wins Texas-Arlington vs. Georgia State? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas-Arlington vs. Georgia State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $4,000 on its college basketball picks, and find out.

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