Voters have consistently shown deference to the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 poll with a clear, yet unwritten, modus operandi by which to handle their ballots related to the top-ranked team in the sport: by not bumping the respective No. 1 team from the top spot unless it loses.
That was clear earlier this season with Kansas holding at No. 1 the first five weeks of the season despite evidence that Auburn was the better team. It was also clear when Tennessee held at No. 1 for five weeks despite evidence that Auburn was the better team. On Monday, I suspect it will again be clear when Auburn holds at No. 1 for a fourth consecutive week despite evidence that Duke -- which, I might remind you, is the only team to beat Auburn -- has looked like the better team of late.
Voting tendencies suggest Auburn's spot at No. 1 -- especially after winning its 13th straight game this weekend with a 10-point road win over Ole Miss -- is not in serious jeopardy. However, Auburn's standing as the unanimous No. 1 might be.
While the Tigers have won 13 straight, No. 2 Duke won its 15th straight on Saturday, demolishing rival North Carolina in a wire-to-wire beatdown. The result moved the Blue Devils to 19-2 on the season, and efficiency ratings give them the No. 3 defense and No. 5 offense -- the only team in the sport with top-five units on both ends of the floor.
Will Auburn's unanimous No. 1 standing continue for a third consecutive week? That appears to be the biggest potential drama in Monday's AP poll with Duke surging, given that I project all the top 10 teams from last week to also be top 10 teams this week (albeit, in many cases, in a slightly different order). It's very much in jeopardy if people watched the Blue Devils dismantle their rival with ease on a national stage over the weekend. Duke now leads all of college basketball in scoring margin, owns a head-to-head win vs. the No. 1 team and would be a projected 0.8 point favorite vs. the Tigers if they played on a neutral floor today -- per EvanMiya.com's brilliant hypothetical matchup preview tool.
Strictly from a résumé-based evaluation, Auburn is the deserving No. 1. It has more than double the amount of Quad 1 wins as Duke, and with 12 already, it's unlikely any team comes close to that many by season's end. But Duke has wind at its sails with strong advanced numbers and the best head-to-head win in the sport -- even if it came at home -- that make casting a first-place vote for the Blue Devils a reasonable place to land. I wouldn't do it, but there's a strong case to be made.
Here's how I project the Top 25 to look Monday when the poll updates with Auburn once again holding firm at the top. As always this is not a personal ballot, rather a projection of how I think it will look when AP votes are tabulated.
| 1 |  |
| Another perfect week for Auburn will result in another appearance at No. 1 in the AP Top 25 on Monday. Auburn won two big road games in SEC play to remain unbeaten vs. conference foes. If I were an AP voter, I'd put the Tigers at No. 1 over Duke, but I'd understand if Duke earns first-place votes this week. Last week: No. 1 | |
| 2 |  |
| An 87-70 win over North Carolina on Saturday may earn Duke some first-place votes this week, but that -- along with its 15-game winning streak -- still won't be enough to get the Blue Devils to No. 1 without an Auburn slip-up. Last week: No. 2 | |
| 3 |  |
| Two losses by No. 3 Iowa State this week will move Alabama up to No. 3 on Monday after it beat No. 14 Mississippi State on the road and then smashed a previously ranked Georgia team by 21. It has won 13 of its last 14 games. Last week: No. 4 | |
| 4 |  |
| Even with a mid-week home loss to Kentucky, Tennessee may still move up this week after defeating No. 5 Florida 64-44 on Friday. The win was Tennessee's largest ever vs. a top-five team, and the Vols defense held the Gators to 24.5% shooting, Florida's worst game by field goal percentage on record. Last week: No. 8 | |
| 5 |  |
| Iowa State will be one of the wild cards in the AP poll Monday after two losses in its two outings this week to Arizona (in OT) and to Kansas State (at home in a 19-point loss). Its body of work and 17-4 record could be enough to keep it in the top five. Last week: No. 3 | |
| 6 |  |
| Saturday was not Florida's best day in the office as it scored a measly 44 points -- its fewest in a game since Feb. 10, 1990 -- in a dud vs. Tennessee. Last week: No. 5 | |
| 7 |  |
| Houston suffered its first loss in Big 12 play on Saturday vs. Texas Tech in OT, 82-81. It had won its previous 13 games, however, including road tilts at Kansas and West Virginia. Last week: No. 6 | |
| 8 |  |
| Michigan State lost its first game of the season vs. a Big Ten opponent on Saturday with a 70-64 road loss to USC. The Spartans (18-3) are still off to their best start since the 2018-19 season when it made a run to the Final Four. Last week: No. 7 | |
| 9 |  |
| With nine wins in its last 10 outings, Purdue should be on the rise again Monday for a fifth consecutive week after holding off Indiana at home in its lone outing of the week. The Boilermakers are 9-2 in Big Ten play and 17-5 overall. Last week: No. 10 | |
| 10 |  |
| Marquette missed on a big opportunity to score a Quad 1 win Saturday, falling 77-69 to Big East rival UConn in Milwaukee. That's two conference home games Marquette has been favored in by more than six points it has lost. Last week: No. 9 | |
| 11 |  |
| Buzz Williams' Aggies know no other way to win than by doing it by razor-thin margins. It did so twice this week in downing OU and South Carolina by margins of seven and four, respectively. Last week: No. 13 | |
| 12 |  |
| John Calipari and Arkansas downed Kentucky 89-79 on Saturday inside Rupp Arena in one of the more stunning outcomes of the weekend. The loss overshadowed a brilliant start to the week for UK after it downed Tennessee in Knoxville 78-73. Last week: No. 12 | |
| 13 |  |
| St. John's has won 14 of its last 15 games dating back to November and is standing alone in first place in the Big East after wins over Georgetown and Providence this week. It has two big tests on tap this week with Marquette and UConn on the schedule. Last week: No. 15 | |
| 14 |  |
| If you're a longtime follower of the CBS Sports Power Rankings, you know that I've been a big believer in Texas Tech for months. That faith is paying off in a big way with a big rise likely coming Monday after beating Houston on its home floor Saturday in OT. Last week: No. 22 | |
| 15 |  |
| Two losses in its last three outings and three losses in its last six outings should threaten KU's chances of earning the benefit of the doubt from voters much longer. It wouldn't surprise me if KU was in jeopardy of falling into the 20s. This preseason No. 1 Jayhawks team just has not clicked. Last week: No. 11 | |
| 16 |  |
| Dennis Gates and his Tigers beat two ranked teams from the state of Mississippi in a seven-day span -- including an 88-61 whooping of Mississippi State on the road Saturday -- to earn a healthy bump Monday. Mizzou will almost certainly be inside the top 20, which will be its highest standing in the AP poll this late in a season since 2011-12. Last week: No. 20 | |
| 17 |  |
| It seemed silly Maryland didn't appear in the rankings last week, but the Terps have made it impossible to not be ranked Monday after wins this week over Indiana and Wisconsin. They have won six of their last seven. Last week: NR | |
| 18 |  |
| The SEC has swallowed up Mississippi State of late with five losses in its last seven outings and two losses this week: both at home to Alabama and Missouri, respectively. Last week: No. 14 | |
| 19 |  |
| A 1-1 week with a road loss to Maryland a road win over Northwestern should keep Wisconsin somewhere inside the top 20 on Monday. It is 17-5 overall and 7-4 in Big Ten play. Last week: No. 17 | |
| 20 |  |
| Penny Hardaway and Memphis have taken control of the AAC after North Texas lost Saturday to put the Tigers into sole ownership of first in the league standings. They've won eight of their last nine games and are 7-1 in conference play. Last week: No. 19 | |
| 21 |  |
| Two road losses this week for the Ducks -- including a puzzling 78-52 loss at UCLA -- will push Oregon down from its standing at No. 16 from last week. Last week: No. 16 | |
| 22 |  |
| Michigan was the first team out of the rankings last week but should be back in the top 25 this week after beating Penn State and Rutgers to improve to 8-2 in Big Ten play. Last week: NR | |
| 23 |  |
| UConn scored a huge road win at Marquette on Saturday to remain alive in the Big East. The Huskies are hanging tight even as star freshman Liam McNeeley continues to rehab a bum ankle that's cost him weeks. Last week: No. 25 | |
| 24 |  |
| Illinois has been hot and cold of late with Tomislav Ivisic missing several games, but it got a big win Sunday over Ohio State to shake off its funk. It will be favored in at least its next four games. Last week: No. 18 | |
| 25 |  |
| A 77-70 road loss to Georgia Tech shouldn't be enough to drop Louisville -- still one of the hottest teams in the sport -- from the rankings this week after moving up to No. 21 last week. The Cardinals are 9-2 in ACC play and have won 10 of their last 11. Last week: No. 21 | |
Projected to drop out: Ole Miss, Vanderbilt
